In my previous two posts, I dwelt on the long-term prospects of the Euro
against the US Dollar
, and predicted that the year-long downtrend would soon give way to an uptrend. Today, I focus on the medium-term. The downtrend has followed a pattern of plunges followed by levelling, as I illustrate with the triangle shapes in the chart. The plunge of the last 10 days having come to an end, we will now see a levelling, or slightly rising period, which could extend up to May. The graph also shows a 50 day Moving Average. The levelling tends to come to an end when the graph licks this Moving Average, which could happen before May actually arrives. Next time the graph and MA collide, however, will be a signal, not for another plunge, but for the uptrend to begin in earnest.