step_ahead_ofthemarket
Long

EURO/$(Breakdown)-Are the Impulsive downtrend waves completed?

OANDA:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
Short and simple(the graph might be harder to read as there are some elements overlapping, but I'll explain them here).
By this point almost everyone knows what's going on.

Just today EURO/USD hit one of the wave 5 landing zones(1.62x wave 1) around 1.1432 , and immediately bounced back.
This is supported from the chart as the 100+200 week MA's, are around the same area, as well as the 0.5 Fibonacci retrace support line.

Here's the catch. DXY at the same time broke-out of its yearly sealing price around 95.52-96. This is crucial as it just happened at the end of the week, and if in case the DXY closes at it's current index, this could give enough confidence and strength for the dollar to run even higher. My guess here for the DXY index would be either the 2015 highs in around the 100's or, the 2016 highs in the similar range(more leaning towards the 2015 highs).

If this would be the case, I can see the EURO/USD going down eventually to 1.18 before finally correcting in an ABC matter(this is easily readable from the chart). This area perfect matches the 0.62 Fibonacci ret. zone. RSI/MACD were included in the analysis and do support the analysis, but they were excluded from the post in order to show the wave analysis.

Finally considering all the recent recession talks. In my opinion, there's a high likelihood of a recession happening this fall. Then of course, all of the analysis done here, could be thrown out the window, since no one with a serious certainty can really guess the erratic behavior expected from the markets. But on this matter maybe on some other idea(please, do comment on this matter down bellow!).

On a personal note, it's such a bummer that the dollar is running this high as I'm about to travel to the States the following weeks.

-Happy trading folks
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Disclaimer:
//This is not a buy/sell sign, you decide what to do with your own money!//
If you liked my take on EUR/USD , comment your thoughts, agree or follow for more interesting TA's, it's all very well appreciated.


Comment: 10/08/18'
DXY still running hot today. EURO/USD breaching the 1.14 support, next support level would be around the 200 week MA support line, if that breaks, over the next couple of weeks the next support level would be 1.18-1.2.
Noteworthy: Key economic new's can disrupt this dollar run at any time.
Comment:

Possible long entries.
1. 1.13
2. 1.118
3. 1.1

Currently it seems that the 200 week average is holding pretty solidly. Despite that, I do believe we'll see an end target around 1.118 by mid September.
-Happy trading-
Comment:
Long awaited update. Seems that it did follow the analysis of above, however the ABC was much shorter in length. One sentence summary is that EUR/USD waiting to implode. Downward sloping channel resembling the strength of the US economy compared to the Euro zone. Obviously this can't last for long. If it breaks the support at 1.1, the next support is at the consolidation level of 0.782 (1.08-1.075, purple square). There might be a interest rate cut by the FED sometime this year, which might allow the Euro to break-out of the downward sloping channel.
-Happy trading-

If you liked the analysis, make sure to leave a like or follow up on me for more interesting and well-detailed ideas!
any update?
+1 Reply
@lu1977hk, Ugh sorry mate, I completely forgot about this TA been busy lately. I will update it when I have time. Thanks for the reminder.
Reply
@lu1977hk, The update is right above, hope it helps out!
Reply
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