- Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (based on Bloomberg)
EUR/USD turned around yesterday, as rising market instability raised attractiveness of the Euro and sent the pair back to 1.12. The monthly R2 at 1.1115 acted as a reliable support line and managed to avoid a deeper sell-off. The bulls are watching the monthly R3 at 1.1246, which has not been overcome yet. A spike above here will neutralize our outlook on EUR/USD , meaning we continue to see correction as the base case. Intraday losses are possible in the direction of the monthly R2, and a failure here should alleviate any pressure to allow for a drop down to weekly PP at 1.1072.
62% of all market participants continue betting on a drop of the Euro against the Dollar, even though 67% of pending orders are set to acquire the European currency in the 100-pip range from the spot.