Yearly S2/March low and bounced strongly. Even if technical signals warns
of trend continuation it is also clear that there is considerable uncertainty in
the market, and bulls are ready to step in rather aggressively. The bounce
from Yearly S2, 1,0830, first reached the Kumo Cloud and after a couple days
shot up towards the Kijun Sen (white line), and pierced it too but was unable to
close above it. On weekly chart, a similar situation is at hand, with the Kijun Sen
acting resistance. Yesterdays close gave another sell signal. First of all, considering
market indecision (retail sentiment is currently almost balanced), it seems like
price is aiming to trade the Weekly at 1,0935. A daily close below it
will again expose the Yearly S2, threatening a breakdown of the range (congestion).
A close above the Kijun Sen and a return inside the cloud, will expose the upper Kumo Cloud.
Again, a conservative approach is to wait for a daily close below 1,08 from a perspective.
At the moment i see on the one hand the chance for a double bottom with basis 1,08. The target of this formation is 1,1425. -Above 1,1425 there is enough place to make a new high at 1,18. (orange counting)
On the other hand there is the strong momentum and dynamic of the longterm downtrend - we are trading at its trendchanels upper edge. This can perhaps be interpreated as a new anticyclical selling signal as long as we trade below this level.
-Below the last valid orange "3" at 1,08 a drop to 1,04 can be exspected
-below the last valid red "2" a longterm selloff can be exspected with target @ 0,92