ChengWeiLoon
Short

Will EURUSD continues to fall further?

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
36 0 1
SUPPORT LEVEL 1.10580
RESISTANCE LEVEL 1.13329

IDEA :
1) BUY SHORT-TERM AT 1.10580, WITH SMALLER-THAN-USUAL LOTS IF THE CANDLE CANNOT BREAK THIS LEVEL OF SUPPORT.
SL 1.10000
TP 1.11580

2) IF THE CANDLE BREAK THE SUPPORT DUE TO GOOD NON-FARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT CHANGE, CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR SELLING OPPORTUNITY (SELL HIGH), OR CONTINUE HOLD THE SHORT POSITION FROM 1.13200
TP1: 1.08000
TP2: 1.05500

REMARKS: BECAUSE THE US LABOUR MARKET ARE RECOVERING, AND THE FED HAD GIVEN SOME HAWKISH VIEW ON RISING INTEREST IN PERHAPS IN APRIL OR JUNE, THE USD SHOULD BE BULLISH IF THE NFP THIS WEEK SHOWS A GOOD RESULT. HOWEVER, IF THE RESULT IS BAD, THERE WILL BE SOME SHORT-TERM BEARISH OPPORTUNITY FOR USD.

WHILE FOR EUR, THE ECONOMIC CONDITION STILL SEEMS NOT RECOVERED MUCH AFTER FEW TIMES OF MONETARY EXPANSION POLICIES, AND THE GREECE'S DEBT ISSUES WILL BE A PROBLEM PERHAPS IN JUNE, IF THE FED RISE ITS FEDS FUND RATE IN JUNE, THIS MAY CAUSE INVESTOR TO BORROW EUR, AND INVEST IN HIGHER YIELD US EQUITY , THEREFORE HURTING FURTHER THE ECONOMY OF EUROPE DUE TO CAPITAL OUTFLOW.

SO IN LONG TERM, IF THE EXPECTATION OF RISING INTEREST RATE OF US DOES NOT CHANGE, EURUSD             WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SHORT IT IN LONG-TERM.
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