5th Wave Long $EURUSD with Seasonality to FOMC

There is an excellent opportunity here with seasonality and a clean setup. This is a great time to be in euros for about a month. It is evident that start around this time each year there is a buying of Euros and selling of US Dollars into the March quarterly FOMC.

The wave setups look excellent and well structured. Since it is possible that the entire EURUSD advance from the bottom is a Leading Diagonal, wave 5 must not exceed the length of wave 3. The 0.786 projection of wave 3 for wave 5 seems entirely reasonable.

I am a huge fan of Donchian close channels using fibonacci numbers. The 55 Day Highest and Lowest close shown in blue highlights the large wave 2 correction a few weeks ago. We are somewhat repeating that now with a similar setup for wave 4.

Post Election Year Seasonality Since 1981

Seasonality for the Previous 16 Years

Trade active:

In Long from Month CAM S4.

🎯 1.2480 ultimate target at 0.786 Wave 3 projection.
🛑 Stop 1.1800 beneath the 200 DMA.

Comment:

EU has retraced about 61.8% of wave 3 so far. If we drop below the 200 DMA I will re-evaluate and look for a long on Year CAM R3 and Year Pivot circled below near 1.1750.

Comment:

Close today with RSI-14 oversold for the first time since March 2020 (not a coincidence, seasonality at play).

200 DMA seems inevitable.

Comment:

Overnight bond reversal off 200 W MA and USDJPY reversal off 200 W MA Is helping the Euro. Looks like we may not get the 200 DMA on EURUSD after all.

Comment:

I am giving this trade another chance here as we have moved off huge supports and there are major movers in the bond arena happening.

Comment:

Inverse Head Shoulders bottom on H4. 1.1850 backtest target minimum.