Instead of recanting the otherwise already widely disseminated fundamental factors, a couple of fresh data points; - Central & Eastern European housing market in collapse; YoY -28% decline in residential prices; - The nagging (constantly revisited) issue of Russian exports of enriched uranium (fuel rods) to the EU (and the US) will now likely be "officially" voted on - whether to include them in the next sanction package. This constitutes <3% of Russian energy sales YET, it effects >35% of the EU's energy generation; (This would be the final, self inflicted blow to energy starved EU - especially for France.) As its been the tendency lately, the EU parliament rushes to pass one stupid, self-defeating act after an other. (Observe all the clowns in the current EU parliament.) In short, as stupid and self-defeatists as this idea was, from the word "Go", inline with the current, popular, parliamentary suicide wave, this may actually come to pass - gets included in the next sanction package. - The war in Ukraine is not going well - to put it mildly. (In major Ukrainian cities police and militia is nabbing 16 year olds off the streets, shipping them off to basic training camps. Much like during the final days of the 3rd Reich.) As it happens, the US has the tendency to cut lose the dead weight, in this case, dump this whole Pandora's Box on the EU's lap. [Not to mention that the US already has pretty much milked this whole situation close to it's maximum potential benefit. Even more reason to call it a day.) - Many more recent developments [just tired of writing them all down, having focused here on the couple of the more recent, relevant factors) which all point to one and the same direction. Most importantly, the EURUSD technicals point in one direction - and one direction only !-, as clearly as it could be imagined.
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Ladies and Gents, this is one strait drive to 0.9000! (From here) Do take maximum advantage of it!!
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Next stop -> 1.0300 (I wouldn't worry too much about that 1.0500 level. While there could be a short term reaction, it will likely be more of a "pause", rather than a sustainable counter-rally.)
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As for any doubt, which is weaker vs. the USD, the Euro or the GBP ... ... sure, the Pound is in a major dive! - But nothing like what is ahead for the Euro! E.g. ALL Euro pairs are an even stronger Short than their GBP counter-parts.
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This is gearing up for a -200 pip Drop here; But wait for it!
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Scratch that last comment - above!
This, of course, is just speculation (then again ... ... that is the name of this game, isn't it?!)
All signs point to an upside push to that recent minor top at 1.1033, including the DXY (USD weakness)
Trade it as it plays.
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For now. The main FX trades are likely to be in the GBP/USD, later on.
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SELL - SHORT - hard, up here! Ought to be good for 200 pips.
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Trade closed: target reached
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FLAT - for now; Now, that was a quick +165 pips, wasn't it?! :-)
Most banks are saying that the euro is strong and that it will reach a price of 1.15 I think that the final target of the euro will be even below 0.85 Even if the price reaches 1.14 which I think is the maximum, then the price will go down to around 0.8150 Yeah I'm drunk all day but whatever. Remember my comment. Cheers!
Nemo_Confidat
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@dokosnime, Any bank's statement is as reliable as a floating dice game. Even more importantly, they are clueless even if they tried. The Euro is ultimately headed to $0.40 - and eventually to $0 (zero) - with maybe a pit stop around $0.90. (I, personally, am geared to play it from the short side exactly to that end.)
@Nemo_Confidat, this is overly pessimistic about the euro.
Nemo_Confidat
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@dokosnime, Well, I am willing to bet. (I am actually betting it.)
dokosnime
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@Nemo_Confidat, I don't like bets :P I think that when the price reaches 0.8150 area, then it will go up to 1.33 area. Probably then it will go down to 0.4 But these are conspiracy theories in the distant future.
dokosnime
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@Nemo_Confidat, by the way, I don't draw maps because I don't like a lot of noise about my price predictions. Cheers and good luck!
Nemo_Confidat
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@dokosnime, Nor do I. - Except when there happens to exist a simple "map" which concurs with the fundamental driving forces. Then a map is only an illustration (effect), not the cause!