I was long EURUSD and I had some other USD short exposure too (mainly via DXY), but reduced my positions to a minimal level. I do not have a clear view, as market clearly misses momentum. When I am not confident, I don't like to have too large exposure.
Weekly: - Within few weeks market will have to make a serious decision abt further direction: either the long term downtrend will be broken and we'll see more bullish waves, or if the break happens on the lower side of thie green channel, then the patter will become a bear flag, with a tgt below 1,05. However fir now, and probably for the next few weeks we'll only see trading in a tightenning range between 1,1050 - 1,1350 - Ichimoku picture is rather neutral, and Heikin Ashi also shows lack of momentum, candles have been mixed in last 5 weeks.
Daily: - Breaking or not breaking? As you see Bulls started to face some increasing resistance: there is the Kumo and Kijun above price. In fact we could call EURUSD bullish only above 1,1300 - 1,1350! - Heikin Ashi also shows Bulss were trying, but they are less powerful, now we have minor signal for momentum drop. The picture changes to undecision again.
Maybe it is not about the USD this time, but if I look at the extreme high EUR levels on other crosses, we may see some decent correction on those. That means some EUR selling in general, which can block EURUSD from moving higher too. Is it time to focus on other EUR crosses rather then EURUSD? Anyway, I don't like this lack of momentum, that's why I decided to scale back. This doesn't mean it can not go up, but I rather enter long again 100 pips higher, if I see a strong momentum, than keeping a too big position which frustrates me.
I called your attention yesterday to check EURNOK for a pull back trade. It started to work, and actually today we have the first daily Heikin Ashi confirmation as well. Sell that on tops.
I will soon post charts on other EUR crosses too.
Comments
IvanLabrie
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Good idea, I think it will correct a bit lower first, before the weekly takes shape and we see it push towards 1.22.
IvanLabrie
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Maybe EURAUD is a good long right now:
SL under the red line.
Kumowizard
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Problem is today's doji Heikin Ashi candle! Here you also see loss of bullish momentum. It may easily com back below 1,58. Actually I think it may start to build a top range 1,57-1,62.
IvanLabrie
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Look at 4h, oversold extreme.
My analysis gives me a valid reason to buy here.
I don't believe in AUDUSD upside right now. Even less than EURUSD downside (which is moderately high probability now)
Kumowizard
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Maybe yes, maybe not, but I have other instruments that are trending well. So this position just kills a bit my focus. I still have some longs left with final stop at 1,1050.