EURUSD.... The Pre-Match Show!

For those of you who have been following myself and @Mayfair_Ventures, you will have noticed a lot of BTC/Crypto talk and streams, as well as our usual educational material.

Well, we think BTC will be sideways for a while so we are starting to go back to Foreign Exchange and Stocks. Let's start with a trade we are likely to take on fairly soon, going long EURUSD.

REMEMBER! Trading takes a LOT of patience. This is the pre-game show, and we are not taking this today...

Elliott Waves are shown on the chart. We have a weekly wave (shown in orange) that is at a perfect spot, where we like it. We like to ride Wave 5. Why? Because we have the most confidence. Why? Because we have the most EVIDENCE!!

At this stage, we have already probably seen the Weekly 4, and the smaller time frame (daily) Wave 1. We think (again waiting for confirmation) that we are at or near the daily 2, which signals our entry to ride Daily Wave 3.

However, more information is available, so we are going to use it. Look at the DXY chart here:


This shows an inverse picture (unsurprisingly as EURUSD makes up a huge part of DXY) that backs up the view. See how the massive monthly support zone (it goes back a loooooong way if you check) fits nicely into the Elliott Wave structure? The pullback we are in at the moment primes the pump for the break down through support. Then we'll likely get the retest of the same level, this time as resistance, which will be wave 4. This second story supports the trade idea in EURUSD really nicely.

We will be taking this trade very soon, as long as all the building blocks (evidence) remain in place. We will reflect when we trade into our forum and here on TradingView. BUT not yet, that's why this is billed as the pre-game show!

What will stop us taking the trade? After all, all we have is a high probability trade, and that's all they are.... high probability. Nothing is certain, but if we saw a drop below the Orange 4, then that would change our minds. We'd have to assume that the 4 is not yet in after all, and we'd have to be more patient and sit on our hands for a bit longer.

In a nutshell, if we don't see the price action we're looking for, we don't do the trade. Price action tells a clearer story than anything else. That's why we are not bulls of BTC yet, for a start! Not doing a trade is sometimes the best trade in the circumstances. A lot of new traders don't get this point. Be a trader who DOES get it.

So, be patient and enjoy the popcorn!