Update: Excuse me for the broken chart, here is the correct support level -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The spike in yields in my view has been over stretched, and could turn around very soon. The markets may be over-reacting to the idea of euro area exiting deflationary environment and more optimistic about inflation going back higher as economy grows. However as the ECB continues to conduct its QE program, yields will probably hold near current levels and retreat back lower with time.. This might be a great opportunity to long the pullback in European equities and short the EURUSD and EURGBP.
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Comments
FXViper
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correct me if im wrong but the euros recent rally is due more to the fact that the dollar has been weaker?
Technician
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Yep true, but since the rise in bund yields, euro has been outperforming most currecnies and therefore as yields retreat it will probably be the most vulnerable. (Given the assumptions that yields will backoff)
Note that the black line is the Bunds bonds chart(which is the inverse of yield)
LubosM
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correct
TimBrent
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Double top now ..I think now Its a good oppertunity to open the trade ..
gunne821
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I am aiming for the 1.15 area to short the Euro once again. Economic data from the US keeps disappointing.
Casey_Yeo
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Probably have to consider US economic data as well for direction of EURUSD.
Technician
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Yep, generally what matters more now is the federal reserve outlook for interest rates..
Rennie
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I do agree, great R:R shorting EUR currently. Works well with other pairs also, great analysis as always Tech!