Daily view: A beautiful to-the-pip reaction has been seen from the ( ) coming in at 1.1516/1.1376. Assuming that follow-through selling is seen from here today, its likely prices could retest the combined weekly/daily swap area at 1.1096/ 1.1051-1.0918 once again.
4hr view: Prior to yesterday’s sell off, we can see that price faked above 4hr supply at 1.1387-1.1346, missing the psychological number 1.1400 by a mere 10 pips! From here the Euro proceeded to decline in value, effortlessly breaking through 1.1300 and testing 4hr demand coming in at 1.1207-1.1233. Given that price is currently trading from overall resistance on the higher timeframes at the moment (see above), we feel there’s a chance that the current 4hr demand area could struggle to hold during today’s sessions. In addition to this, we’re seeing temporary resistance form just above this area around the 1.1265 mark, which is holding firm despite price trading around demand. On the flip side, this 4hr demand area could potentially force the market into temporary consolidation between here and 1.1265 ahead of the mighty NFP announcement which is due to be released later on.
With everything take into consideration, our team has no interest in buying this market due to what the higher-timeframe picture is telling us (see above). Although selling would be more favorable from a daily and weekly technical standpoint, shorting into 4hr demand is just something we cannot condone. Therefore, we’ve opted to remain flat until at least after the NFP data has been released.
Levels to watch – live orders:
• Buys: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
• Sells: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).