KVE

EURUSD update: watch for the triangle breakout!

FX_IDC:EURUSD   EURO / US DOLLAR
207 5 8
Update to my previous post: added 2 channels, adjusted SL and added extra targets for possible trades.

Possible trades are on the chart, 3 targets per side, depending on the direction in which PA breaks out of the triangle.

I will not enter the first breakout unless it is very clear because I suspect it might be false, I will wait for a confirmed second breakout and might adjust my SL depending on PA.

If the current triangle is ignored by PA the setup is invalid and I will adjust for a potential ascending triangle scenario if applicable.

I will try to confirm trades with harmonic patterns , but have no time for that at the moment.

Wish me luck! Good trading to all!
KVE PRO
a year ago
We have a breakout of the triangle and price is now at the 23.6 fib level of the March to May move. Entering to catch the big move up is still risky because it might turn out to be a false breakout. Waiting for a retracement to the trendline and move back up beyond the current level, or consolidation for confirmation would probably be the safest... Stochastics are extremely overbought, but no divergence there, neither on RSI (not yet overbought).

That said I might be entering a trade anyway... Next stop beyond this point could be 1.1293 which is the 23.6 fib level of the big move down from May 2014 to March 2015. I think I'll put a buy limit @ 1.1157 with stops below 1.1080 (say 1.1068 or a bit lower to be safe) to try and catch that move and possibly beyond to target 1 as in the chart. I will adjust my lot size to fit my money management rules. I will add to my long position on a retracement if the breakout sets through.

Good luck to all who might take a chance to trade this possible breakout!! Be careful though and don't overrisk, trade smaller lots if necessary!!
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KVE PRO
a year ago
Possible 3-step trade to get to initial TP1. Step 2 is chosen as there might be resistance @ around 1.1360: previous structure + end of possible ABCD harmonic move (see magenta lines on the chart):
snapshot
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KVE PRO KVE
a year ago
We are now at the level indicated above. We didn't get a retracement before so I entered a trade at 1.1237 and 1.1068 SL. My targets are 1.1430 and 1.1795. I only entered with 1/5 of my regular lot size because of the fact that I couldn't buy at a decent enough level and I was being careful...

First target is a bit below previous highs of the range. I'm expecting a decent retracement or even a reversal around the upper range boundary.
Watch carefully at which point this happens! If the highest high making up the range boundary is clearly breached and price doesn't retrace too much or hovers around the top then a move further up is very well possible and even likely imo.

If we don't get there before a reversal or significant retracement then it might mean that the market is careful and there is not enough confidence with bulls at the moment for a further move up.

A clear reversal will take us at least to the trendline making up the ascending triangle, so oppurtunitiess are there to catch these moves!
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KVE PRO
a year ago
The upper boundary of the horizontal range was breached and target 2 was almost reached but PA bounced back around the upper boundary of the up-channel (on my MT4 charts it touched, depends on broker and where and on what timeframe you draw the line ofcourse...).
This to me validates that channel (blue one in the chart) and so I sold my long position around 1.16 since momentum showed that PA was getting seriously overbought and I would expect some profit taking. The down channel (yellow one in the first chart) is now invalidated! If we stay above the 1.1460/1.1470 level then the ascending triangle is also breached and would become a support level.

I have initiated 3 shorts to catch at least part of the retracement, one I already sold @ 1.1556 (from 1.1600, easy 44 pips...), the other ones are now running: 1 entry @ 1.1600 and 1 entry @ 1.1565 with targets resp. 1.1470 and 1.1310 (above 38.2 fib level of the last move up (swing low to swing high) and upper range boundary, and the other just above 61.8 fib level of that last move). I have placed my SL above the high of today and will trail to BE when first target is reached (hoping we get there, counter-trend... :-s )

People who like to take more risk could try to catch a retracement further down to 1.1180 (61.8% of the 05 August to 24 August (current high) move), but be aware of the fact that this is counter-trend!!!
I'm not risking it for the moment...!

PA is now violently moving up and down, so I'm being careful not to overdo it, bulls could still take the pair higher up to that important 38.2 fib level @ 1.1800 which we didn't quite get to earlier today. This level is now looking so attractive as a goal for bulls :-), acting like a magnet now I would think! Should see some decent profit taking if we get there!

I'm interested to see what happens around the 1.1460/1.1470 level (upper boundary of previous range) if we get there (!), for clues as to where PA wants to go now, up or down...

For now I'm still thinking mostly "up" and considering down moves only as retracements!
Possible "up" targets beyond 1.18 are the 1.20 psych level and 1.22 which is close to an important 50% fib level.

Updated chart:
snapshot
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KVE PRO KVE
a year ago
Here's the update of my 3 shorts, all targets reached! I will enter one small long and an additional short to try and catch a retracement and further move down, using a smaller lot size this time so I'm not sure that I won't eat up to much of my profits. Hope I'm not overdoing it...?
Chart:
snapshot
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