To follow up on last week's EURUSD idea, the pair has finally reached higher level of structure that I liked during yesterday's Euro rally. We've now double topped at that level and have broken structure to the downside setting up for a potential 2618 opportunity for those traders looking for a conservative approach to get involved.
We do have A LOT of news on the table today including an ECB press conference and a USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change number. There aren't many expectations from the ECB this morning as nothing is expected to be said in regards to the monetary policy but there may be some Greece based questions during the Q&A and anything regarding Greece has been moving the markets as of late. Before ADP number which is released before the ECB press conference should be of importance as traders will look to use it to predict Friday's massive news day. There are rumors floating around about "ditching" the rate hike due to global worries so the very bullish sentiment that we had on the USD may not be as strong as before.
"It may be impossible for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates until the rest of the world economy improves... the dismal performance of first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product may signal a more permanent slowdown, and that the Fed needed to enter a phase of "watchful waiting" before raising rates."
Anyway enough of the fundamentals, the technicals gave me a sell yesterday so I'm still looking short on this pair but it may be an interesting day similar to the Aussie (for those of you in the Syndicate program). Below is a link to the video where I originally discussed the trade setup. The EURUSD talk starts about 11 minutes into it.
Hey Akil, nice analysis. I just wanted to clarify something. When we see the market retracing back to the 61.8% level after putting in double top and breaking structure, do you place a sell limit order at the 61.8% level OR do you wait for the market to confirm either by reversal candlesticks or rsi divergence?
Akil_Stokes
⋅
Either or, it depends on how aggressive a trader you are
moneymaking
⋅
Great, Thank you and good luck :)
ozkanctn
⋅
thx akil i learned this 2,68 method from you and jason but i doubt this is an actually double top or not ? because i think there is a slight third top on the 3 bars left side of double top at 13:00 of 02.06.2015 , what do you think ? and another question is what is the accuracy of this method , 60% percent of the time or 70% ?
Akil_Stokes
⋅
Hey Ozkanctn, even with a 3rd test the same principles would hold true for the 2618, I guess it would technically have to be called a 3618. I don't personally trade the 2618 as a strategy on it's own, but when performing backtesting for our training the overall results were about 50/50. With that being said I'm sure a good portfolio and a few filters can increase that win rate but I never wen that deep into modifying it so I couldn't tell you what those results would be.
FXROB
⋅
Hi Akil I think you look for the short term in the 240h it looks like https://thishttps://www.tradingview.com/x/dxKUx9P2/ I now a lot of thinks from you thanks anyway sorry for my language .
Akil_Stokes
⋅
Hey Robert, that cypher pattern is not going to be a valid one, but I like your bigger projection of the future Gartley. That can certainly come into play if price turns bearish again
tasha0nine
⋅
can i ask, u target the price will bullish until what price before its go down?
genchwan
⋅
obviously resistance was broken and stop loss already
Akil_Stokes
⋅
Obviously I was wrong on this one, but my prediction was that the 1.12 level would hold