DanV
Long

EURUSD - SHORT TERM BULLISH LEG ANTICIPATED

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
There is so much going on both in Eurozone specifically and to some extent in USA and this has reflected in short term chart of EURUSD             . Though longer term EURUSD             still remains in bearish cycle and possibly has 1 more wave outstanding that could result in new low or retest of last low.

So making any call on this is likely to be hazardous. It has been perplexing me so far and has been very hard to put satisfactory labels on the price action from the last major low.

However, I think it seem relative clear enough now and probable that has given me a reasons to publish it.

Most of the details are on the chart, which suggest that last bullish leg wave 5 could develop with upside target being 1.15-1.155 zone may be even take out stops just above that.


If the price action completes the anticipated path then bullish trade could be in the making and might prove to be very fast with longer term bearish trade to consider at the top.

Also, if that happens then likely Greece's issue will be temporarily resolved or such that might warrant a relief rally, nothing more.

Anyway as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement.

Select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. If you like the analysis then please indicate this by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please share for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

DanV
http://www.danv-charting.com
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Interesting take.
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
Thanks. For now it remains speculative. But will be planning my trade accordingly.
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I'm trading eurgbp instead...playing the GBP strength vs EUR weakness seemed safer than going against USD.
snapshot
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
Yes I agree it is a;so a good trade, Thanks for sharing.
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If there will be agreement between EU and Greece 1.15 will be flashed out up on short squeeze.
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Absolutely 100%. Or even on report that they have possible agreement.
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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/euro-zone-not-accept-unilateral-143725476.html
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
Interesting. Thanks.
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I don't think it's gonna clinb that high. It's gonna thumble down immediately. Next target 0.98. Look montly chart.
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DanV MOD Patladj.
Well you could be right if it does not then my suggestion would fail. We will have to see how it develops. Thanks.
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thanks. I hope your scenario actually happens because dollar will get cheaper and I plan to increase my long positions on it
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DanV MOD Patladj.
Yes if the DXY makes an intermediate top and retraces then it could offer that opportunity.
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the reason for this is not the EUR. It's the dollar. It's a USD deflationarry environment. Somehow they manage to prep the stock market, as there is no recession, but in fact there is USD deflation wave all over the world.
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DanV MOD Patladj.
Yes O could agree with the deflation theme and it could affect the USD too. However, it is difficult to see how each of the currencies and in what magnitude this would affect them. Specially over short term like couple of days. However, over longer term based on my chart USD has 1 more minor swing outstanding to complete the current bullish cycle before it either reverses or at least retrace. Here is DXY chart showing what I mean
snapshot
+2 Reply
Agreed, that looks a lot like a 4th wave contracting triangle...
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
Thanks. It seems very messy and has breached the support trendline but overall I think it should still play out. If we get any indication that Greece is close to getting agreement either today or over the weekend could result in short squeeze.
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Also this: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/forex-dollar-recoups-lost-ground-121124670.html
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
Yes agreed. Thanks
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It's incredible how you can time the different corrections and impulses just by looking at this after doing your technical analysis: http://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/

Definitely worth keeping an eye on. I'm trading EURGBP short for instance, and with the relatively not so good public sector loan figures (and the leading diagonal's fifth wave conclusion...) price corrected down.

I expect it to regain bullish momentum next week, if the news are good for GBP (and we don't drop below the 1.5225 mark)
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
I agree. On many occasions fundamentals and technical interact with each other and when they line up they are very powerful.
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Euro group meeting in 3 hs, then in 3hs58min, US Markit manufacturing pmi news...which can be positive and the eur resume the direction down, or negative and fuel the missing up wave in your chart. Good luck!
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
Thanks will keep an eye out
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UPDATE: As noted when publishing the chart that due to all that is currently in the melting pot, it is hazardous to post any chart of EUR right now. However it did so as I felt the pattern was relatively clear. However, today's price action did not support what was anticipated. So this was a scratched trade with no loss. So I have reviewed this to make sense of it. I am glad to say that as it stands it has not really changed much in overall expectation but an updated chart will be helpful. I now anticipate bullish move is reserved to next week may be even big gap open next week. Here is the chart
snapshot
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