There is so much going on both in Eurozone specifically and to some extent in USA and this has reflected in short term chart of EURUSD. Though longer term EURUSD still remains in bearish cycle and possibly has 1 more wave outstanding that could result in new low or retest of last low.
So making any call on this is likely to be hazardous. It has been perplexing me so far and has been very hard to put satisfactory labels on the price action from the last major low.
However, I think it seem relative clear enough now and probable that has given me a reasons to publish it.
Most of the details are on the chart, which suggest that last bullish leg wave 5 could develop with upside target being 1.15-1.155 zone may be even take out stops just above that.
If the price action completes the anticipated path then bullish trade could be in the making and might prove to be very fast with longer term bearish trade to consider at the top.
Also, if that happens then likely Greece's issue will be temporarily resolved or such that might warrant a relief rally, nothing more.
Anyway as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement.
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the reason for this is not the EUR. It's the dollar. It's a USD deflationarry environment. Somehow they manage to prep the stock market, as there is no recession, but in fact there is USD deflation wave all over the world.
DanV
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Yes O could agree with the deflation theme and it could affect the USD too. However, it is difficult to see how each of the currencies and in what magnitude this would affect them. Specially over short term like couple of days. However, over longer term based on my chart USD has 1 more minor swing outstanding to complete the current bullish cycle before it either reverses or at least retrace. Here is DXY chart showing what I mean
IvanLabrie
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Agreed, that looks a lot like a 4th wave contracting triangle...
DanV
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Thanks. It seems very messy and has breached the support trendline but overall I think it should still play out. If we get any indication that Greece is close to getting agreement either today or over the weekend could result in short squeeze.
It's incredible how you can time the different corrections and impulses just by looking at this after doing your technical analysis: fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/
Definitely worth keeping an eye on. I'm trading EURGBP short for instance, and with the relatively not so good public sector loan figures (and the leading diagonal's fifth wave conclusion...) price corrected down.
I expect it to regain bullish momentum next week, if the news are good for GBP (and we don't drop below the 1.5225 mark)
DanV
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I agree. On many occasions fundamentals and technical interact with each other and when they line up they are very powerful.
IvanLabrie
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Euro group meeting in 3 hs, then in 3hs58min, US Markit manufacturing pmi news...which can be positive and the eur resume the direction down, or negative and fuel the missing up wave in your chart. Good luck!