Investors are holding the support at 1.3585. Inflation dropped at 0.5% (0.7% estimate) and unemployment rate dropped at 11.7%. From the TA perspective I saw an descending triangle. A break bellow the support would clearly be a negative signal for the future price action. For the moment I am still waiting for stronger signals - When in doubt, better stay out!
What i see is range mode between 1.3645/50 - 1.3590/85, breakout of this range gives us a clear direction .. I have not large fundamental knowledge, but I think that tomorrow is D-day for this pair ... :-/
Razvan
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I also see a range. :)
lgiulian
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Wow! Again, upper line retested
Razvan
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yep
Tope
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Hi Ravzan!
Since the inflaction dropped to 0.5% this could potencially trigger the cut on EUR interest rates, do you agree?
I am following this pair and waiting for a good oportunity to sell...
What is your long-term view?
Razvan
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Long term view- I tend to go with what most banks say - Euro lower. From my little knowledge of fundamental analysis I would say that this low inflation will put a higher pressure on the ECB to not only lower the interest rate, but also make some liquidity injections. The fell of the interest rate I believe that is already discounted, so the impact will be according to the quantitative easing. (This is my opinion :) )
Tope
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Thank you very much for your answer.
About the interest rate, that is what I fear... that people had sold already...
I will be paying a lot of atention for the moment that the interest rate decision will be released.
I belive that some people will take off their short positions ("Buy on the rumor sell on the news" and vice-versa) and I can place a good short position for a long term view.
Razvan
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you are welcome, it will be tricky because the action will happen at the ECB press conference, and as we know, Draghi is very good with words, just like Trichet was before him :)
AdrianRotaru
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If the price goes to the level of 1.3615 and then test the downtrend line on the chart for 45 minutes, maybe I'd be tempted to take a BUY position there, with TP1 at 1.3635-40 and TP2 at 1.3670, short SL 1.3600
But for now waiting to see if it has power punching above or below the triangle