forexTrdr

forexTrdr Sunday Setups: EURUSD ALL EYES ON THE PRIZE.. 100DMA

Education
FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
Hi all and welcome to our Sunday Setups a new technical analysis piece where we are looking to showcase our work and highlight our 20 years of professional trading experience at the worlds best Investment Banks.

Our aim is to keep analysis simple so that anyone can follow and learn from our work and hopefully our past performance highlights why we are different.

Interested in finding out more? Head over to our profile page and please give us a follow

Please comment and leave feedback- we will be bringing our analysis via video soon

First on the agenda is EURUSD- as per chart we have a descending trendline dating back to September, what we are looking for here is a potential retest of the 100 day moving average (1.1367) before a pull back to year to date lows and a move to 1.1130 area over the next few weeks. Risk is we have a break out to the upside and escape out of the descending trendline towards 1.142 area. Countering that however, from tech perspective, the pair is at the top of the overbought range on RSI (bottom chart).

From fundamental side European growth continues to come in at the lower end of recent performance and the ECB has announced further stimulus through the extension of TLTRO- a form of cheap funding to the banking sector. US continues to storm ahead on growth and looks to have bottomed out in January- last weeks NFP looks nothing more than a fluke number which occurs from time to time. This week we have Fed meeting on Wednesday where we expect to hear comments around growth having bottomed out at start of year and a pickup in economic activity in line with what we are seeing in other forward looking indicators and Chinese stimulus.

Week Ahead
  • Tuesday 19th March:
    German ZEW Survey - very low impact
    US Factory Orders & Durable goods - low impact

  • Wednesday 20th March:
    Fed Meeting - potential for high impact

  • Thursday 21st March:
    European consumer confidence - low impact


Trend:
  • Descending trendline since the high on 24th September

  • Series of lower highs and lower lows since start of 2019


Tech levels:

Major keys to upside:
  • 1.1367 the 100 day moving average and around the top of the descending trendline from September

  • 1.1418 February high

Major keys to downside:
  • 1.1290 January low

  • 1.1235 February low


  • 1.1187, 61.8% retracement of 2017 low to 2018 high


  • 1.1177, YTD low