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EUR/USD Chartpack - Technicals & Trade Setup

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
202 0 15
EUR/USD bearish engulfing plummets prices below 7-DMA, major trend still fragile but in prolonged range – Snap rallies to construct tunnel spreads:

On daily charts , we don’t encourage longs despite today’s upswings. Instead, we are slightly bearish bias due to following technical indications.

The bearish engulfing pattern is traced out at 1.0922 levels and as a result, you could very well see price slumps ever since this bearish pattern .

For today even though we see upswings, momentum is not sufficed and swings are struggling to break out a stiff channel resistance at 1.0872 levels, the breach and sustenance above these levels would likely resume bullish rallies and target upto 1.0911 levels. Otherwise, we bet upon southward targets upto 1.0832 levels.

The US inflation continues to be the hot topic for the day. We look for a fall of -0.1% m/m. If that is the case, this may weigh a little on the EUR, which has been under pressure most of this week, ahead of the US data.

The current prices have gone below 7DMAs on daily terms but cushioned at 21DMAs.

But on a broader perspective, the major trend still goes in non-directional, the consolidation phase in the major downtrend seems to be continued and stuck in range (see the rectangular area on monthly charts).

Although EURUSD             spiked from range support, it has remained well below and been struggling to bounce further above 21EMA levels on the monthly chart; as a result, the major downtrend still seems to be intact.

RSI indicates stern bearish momentum on daily terms and indecisiveness to the major trend.

While same has been the case on stochastic curves, this leading oscillator has also been bearish bias at oversold zone and indecisive on monthly terms.

While MACD indicates the woolliness in the prices on monthly terms but remains slightly bullish biased in short term. Overall, you see no traces of indications of robust uptrend at this juncture.

Trade tips:

On intraday terms, as both stochastic and RSI noise with strong momentum in buying interests as they are converging to the ongoing downswings, we advocate buying tunnel spreads with upper strikes at 1.0895 and lower strikes at 1.0842 levels. Alternatively, stay short in near-month futures on hedging grounds as more slumps are on the cards in the months to come as the risks are likely to accumulate on Fed’s hiking cycle.
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