Daniel Urdaneta

EUR/USD: Rangebound and waiting for direction

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
Since all the rumours of ECB QE were sold, and the actual thing was announced on early February, EUR/USD             has been trading rangebound throughout 2015 with most of the price action developed in the 1,08-1,12 band. Hindsight is 20/20, but the best trades this year have been to buy the lows and sell the highs; and there's reason to believe this will hold for the foreseeable future, imo.

Technicals are mixed: EUR has found a bid at the 1,08 area, which is a clear higher low from the depths on March and April. It also has shown a pattern of spiking up on up days (check the long wicks on several daily candles); it's a tell-tale sign of short squeezes. On the other hand, EUR has been trading below it's 200-day MA for over a year now, and the mean is starting to catch up with price... Barring any unforeseen changes in the fundamentals, that are clearly EUR-negative (US-EU Policy Divergence is the name of the game) there is little reason to believe that the Euro             will pass this major technical hurdle.

I will look at the colored sup/resis lines (My default view has a bit more, but these are the 2 most important on each side) as major pivots to trade the pair, and will stay away from it if I don't get a clear setup. I suggest you to do the same!

PS: My bias is long, but since we're stuck at the middle of the range, I closed my long position at 1,1020 area this afternoon. Let's see where we open tomorrow.
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