RobertPapon

Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly overview (27.04-01.05)

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
In the last week, the euro             strengthened slightly against the dollar, despite persistent             concerns about Greece. At the moment, negotiations stalled, the impasse continues virtually every point on the line Greece- negotiations the EU. In fact, after a month of negotiations, both sides of a burden to each other lack of compromise. Strong attitude of the Greek Minister of Finance (Yanis Varoufakis), raises strong opposition Brussels. "I would describe today's meeting as a complete breakdown in communication with Greece." - Edward Scicluna, Malta's finance minister.

"I am already quite annoyed with this issue " I can not confirm That there have been essential steps forward. "- Hans Jorg Schelling, Austrian Finance Minister. The whole thing also became involved Mario Draghi, who scared the Greek banks, the tightening of security requirements in the event of deterioration. Consequently, the currency pair is locked at all times and can not move the market towards higher resistance, despite good business sentiment in Germany and weak economic data from the US.
Writing a few words about the euro             zone's largest economy should be emphasized that the Ifo business sentiment index rose from 107.9 to 108.60, the highest since June 2014. Germany's economic recovery continues and gains momentum which should support the euro             .
At the end of the summary of the last week is worth paying attention to the weaker US data, which also support the euro             . Here it should be emphasized that orders for durable resources increased by 4% but the increase is based entirely by an increase in demand for cars and military equipment. Business investment fell nearly 7 months in a row, which to some extent forced to introduce savings. Taking this into account it must be assumed that economic growth in the first quarter, it may be weak.


What can we expect next week and what data market for the EUR / USD will pay attention?

The market will closely watch for Wednesday, when we will know the notes of the meeting of the Fed. After the recent weaker economic data from the US, it can be concluded that the Fed will have no grounds to increase interest rates. In this connection, it may lead to a strong dollar sales and EUR / USD pair, we can see a higher price levels.

In the graph, we can see the formation of a wedge , which is not yet finished. The currency pair reached an important resistance. Certainly Wednesday the information may lead to breaking the mountain. If this happens again, we will test the strong resistance zone 1,10-1,1034, which have recently been quite heavily defended by the supply side. Also keep in mind that it can bounce from the resistance (1,09-1,0915 around and see another move down to the level of 1,0580-1,06.
More likely to draw up before the stroke of the mountain (better data from Germany, the worse from the US). Note: you must constantly keep track of negotiations with Greece.
If there is a knock at around 1.10 and puncture resistance of this market can receive a signal for further growth. Otherwise, follow closely around 1,0580-1,06 support. Going below the support zone may lead to the test this year with the goal of at least 1: 1.
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