Update on the EUR

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
238 0 7
Starting from the top this morning, weekly action, as you can see, has edged itself higher into supply drawn from 1.1533-1.1278. The bulls will likely have their work cut out for them here since this area has held price lower since May 2015. Nevertheless, should this pair continue to drive north, the next key level beyond the current supply can be seen at 1.1745 – a broken Quasimodo line. Along the same vein, market participants on the daily scale are also trading at an established area of supply fixed at 1.1385-1.1332, which is housed within the aforementioned weekly supply. In the event of a break through this zone, one can likely expect price to reach 1.1460 – a clear-cut Quasimodo resistance line.

Sliding across to the H4 chart, the Quasimodo resistance line at 1.1338 alongside the mid-level barrier just above at 1.1350 held prices lower going into the American session yesterday. On the surface, H4 candle action shows that the bulls have a slight edge in this market right now. Should this encourage follow-through buying, the next area of interest comes in at supply taken from 1.1451-1.1425 – sitting just above psychological resistance 1.1400 and just beneath the aforementioned daily Quasimodo resistance line.

Regardless of the H4 candle action, however, higher-timeframe structure (see above) indicates that the single currency may decline in value, so we all need to be prepared for this. To safely trade this move, nonetheless, waiting for price to close below 1.1300 might be the best path to take as this will prove bearish strength. In addition, this would allow one to take any retest seen to the underside of this line and target H4 demand at 1.1259-1.1236 as a first take-profit target.
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