ANALYSIS: EURUSD: All Roads Lead To A Wave 3

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
Did that headline get you excited? Who doesn't want to catch a wave 3, right? So my thorough analysis says a wave 3 is the next move. But when and where will it start? Or has it already started? Can you still catch it if it has? If so, where would it be best to catch it? All these questions will be answered....in due time! So let's get started with why I'm thinking wave 3.

I did post about his possibility last week (see Related Ideas: "EURUSD: Did Wave C Just Start? Bull Bat TP1+TP2 Hit (+222 pips)". But in doing my weekend re-analysis, I throw everything from last week away and start from scratch and see if I come to the same conclusions. Here's what I got.....

The chart I posted above is the 4Hr TF chart. The chart is simple. Two patterns. One is a bullish Gartley and the other a bearish butterfly . Both end at/near the lower and upper trend lines respectively. By my wave count, it's possible that we are already in a wave 3 moving up towards filling the bearish butterfly at the top trend line . But it is also possible that the wave 2 has not yet finished and prices will move towards the lower trend line more and fill the bullish Gartley before starting on the wave 3 up after testing the lower trend line . Prices are at a decision point (as of the time of this posting) as to which way to go. It's simple. If it goes down and breaks the B point of the Gartley , then wave 2 is not finished and the Gartley will get filled. Prices then will start on wave 3. If prices either move down and DOES NOT break the B point of the Gartley and then start moving up again OR prices just move up from where it is now, then wave 3 has already started and now is a good time to look for opportunities on small retracements to get in on it. Why the B point is so important? Because if wave 3 has already started, then point B is the end of the wave 2. If prices go lower than that, then wave 2 is not done. OK, so how did I come to the conclusion that there is a wave 3 coming here and that prices are not just poised to shoot down in starting another impulse wave down?

There is A LOT going on here! Mostly self-explanatory but overall...BEARISH! So if I am overall bearish on this pair, why am I saying there is a wave 3 UP coming? Well, remember this is a MONTHLY chart and everything that is happening now is all within the context of the MONTHLY moves.


So below are 3 charts on the DAILY TF that show 3 possible scenarios that I think have the most likelihood of happening. Of course I am not saying any of these WILL happen and that there are many other ways that this correction could still unfold and also that there is a possibility that the correction is over and prices are poised to move lower from here as well. But these are just MY thoughts are the most likely scenarios. Choose whichever you think. But in ALL 3 scenarios, the next move is UP in a wave 3. And that is why I am so confident that this is a very good opportunity to catch a wave 3 movement!

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Agree, my bias is long now and on D1 chart my prefered scenario is a triangle. I found also a bearish bat level tha coincides with you bearish butterfly pattern near 1.1370. I will short there for sure because i have more reasons according to my trading system. Best regards.
I've never seen such indepth analysis. Great work, and thanks for sharing.
You're welcome. Hope it helps.
I like your gartley chart. it shows that the price could go up in the pink W shape or go down in the light blue M shape. lol.
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Or go down and then UP, UP and AWAY!
thank so much
Couldn't agree more on the possibility of wave C. Waiting for a proper entry long. Appreciated. All the best!
Seeing as prices are declining right now and looking more like it's gonna fill the Gartley, another low risk entry but also to make sure you get in just in case prices bounce without filling the pattern would be to enter LONG as the B point of the Gartley (C point of the butterfly). The risk is minimal since it is so close to the Gartley D point but it also guards against the possibility that wave 2 may finish without hitting the Gartley D point since the B point is also a minor structure level and could bounce from there. Most likely, that is what I will do. Check the RSI when prices reach that point as well. If oversold then on 15M TF or above, it's all good.
Well, of course I am jumping on this wave 3 possibility and looking to ride it! It's just now of a matter of where to get in. I have been bullish short term on this pair for a while now anticipating a final move up in this corrective wave and have been accumulating LONGS already. I see this as a good chance to add to my LONG positions. If it does head down and fill the Gartley, of course that is a obvious point to go LONG. If it does not head down, then the next good point to enter will be when wave 2 is confirmed finished...and that is when prices break above the B point line. But if you wait till then, then you might've already missed half the move.A more aggressive approach would be to enter now and hold it LONG putting your S/L below the X point of the Gartlley but that would mean you will have a large drawdown if prices head that way. Make sure you can handle that and not get shaken if you choose to do that. I won't do it as I already have LONG positions much lower down and don't need to take that risk.

Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

If you like my posts and find them helpful, please take a second to hit that LIKE button and follow me so I will know my posts are useful to you. Doing so will encourage me to post more! As always, all comments are welcome.
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