I did post about his possibility last week (see Related Ideas: "EURUSD: Did Wave C Just Start? TP1+TP2 Hit (+222 pips)". But in doing my weekend re-analysis, I throw everything from last week away and start from scratch and see if I come to the same conclusions. Here's what I got.....
SUMMARY OF MAIN CHART ABOVE
The chart I posted above is the 4Hr TF chart. The chart is simple. Two patterns. One is a and the other a . Both end at/near the lower and upper respectively. By my wave count, it's possible that we are already in a wave 3 moving up towards filling the at the top . But it is also possible that the wave 2 has not yet finished and prices will move towards the lower more and fill the before starting on the wave 3 up after testing the lower . Prices are at a decision point (as of the time of this posting) as to which way to go. It's simple. If it goes down and breaks the B point of the , then wave 2 is not finished and the will get filled. Prices then will start on wave 3. If prices either move down and DOES NOT break the B point of the and then start moving up again OR prices just move up from where it is now, then wave 3 has already started and now is a good time to look for opportunities on small retracements to get in on it. Why the B point is so important? Because if wave 3 has already started, then point B is the end of the wave 2. If prices go lower than that, then wave 2 is not done. OK, so how did I come to the conclusion that there is a wave 3 coming here and that prices are not just poised to shoot down in starting another impulse wave down?
OVERVIEW - MONTHLY CHART
There is A LOT going on here! Mostly self-explanatory but overall...BEARISH! So if I am overall on this pair, why am I saying there is a wave 3 UP coming? Well, remember this is a MONTHLY chart and everything that is happening now is all within the context of the MONTHLY moves.
WEEKLY CHART - ZOOMING IN ON THE CURRENT PRICE ACTION
DAILY CHARTS - HERE'S WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING: 3 POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
So below are 3 charts on the DAILY TF that show 3 possible scenarios that I think have the most likelihood of happening. Of course I am not saying any of these WILL happen and that there are many other ways that this correction could still unfold and also that there is a possibility that the correction is over and prices are poised to move lower from here as well. But these are just MY thoughts are the most likely scenarios. Choose whichever you think. But in ALL 3 scenarios, the next move is UP in a wave 3. And that is why I am so confident that this is a very good opportunity to catch a wave 3 movement!
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Well, of course I am jumping on this wave 3 possibility and looking to ride it! It's just now of a matter of where to get in. I have been bullish short term on this pair for a while now anticipating a final move up in this corrective wave and have been accumulating LONGS already. I see this as a good chance to add to my LONG positions. If it does head down and fill the Gartley, of course that is a obvious point to go LONG. If it does not head down, then the next good point to enter will be when wave 2 is confirmed finished...and that is when prices break above the B point line. But if you wait till then, then you might've already missed half the move.A more aggressive approach would be to enter now and hold it LONG putting your S/L below the X point of the Gartlley but that would mean you will have a large drawdown if prices head that way. Make sure you can handle that and not get shaken if you choose to do that. I won't do it as I already have LONG positions much lower down and don't need to take that risk.
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!
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