So how to be cautious you ask? well first of all this is just my personal analytical opinion and therefore before taking any rough action please make your own analysis based on your strategy.
So the analyzing this pair on the will provide a lot of noise to make accurate decisions and therefore suits here as the noise would be greatly minimized. First of all the weekly candles should well close below the 1.14500 crucial support, i doubt it will happen this week and so next week could be vital for this to happen. After the weekly candle has closed well below the 1.14500 level it can be confirmed that the support has been violated and the price is ready to break down further.
To make a timed entry into this pair, a slight retracement needs to take place on the so as we can enter the trade. Our SL will always be above the right shoulder. The TP level on this will most likely be at 1.04 level where the next crucial support lies.
Overall its a great set up but caution is necessary in this case. If you are already LONG on the USD (swing trade) then i suggest you do not double your risk by going short here as well. I am already SHORT on the NZDUSD (swing trade) and i would not be taking this trade as i do not want double my risks. For those of you who are willing to take this trade please be advised to take caution and be patient. DONT GET CAUGHT IN THE HYPE!
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CAPITAL RISK MAXIMUM 1 %
SELL LIMIT PRICE: 1.14500
RISK REWARD: 1:9
TP LEVELS WILL BE ADJUSTED LATER DEPENDING ON THE FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS AND TECHNICAL.
You can trail your SL above the 4 hr 50 EMA once the price favors your way. Its just my suggestion and in the end it depends on you