Sforex

EURUSD: How to deal with FED Meeting on Wednesday ?

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
710 10 4

- Fundamental Analysis

EURUSD             seems to be provided new life post ECB Meeting. : From 1.0500 to 1.1100 is 500 pips in two weeks; that's a great move I rarely see.

The momentum behind this move according my view come from the fact that market is positioning for disappointed FED meeting on next Wednesday.

I and all traders believe that FED will hike rate coz FED need to finish 2015 financial year by doing something. They need to reassure market's expectation before it's too late.

However, that is not our expectation, what we care is a future path of next rate hikes. That's it.

This is indeed too hard to FED. FED must protect USDollar             from a new wave of rally; the current level of USDollar             indeed is too high and FED doesn't like it.

A strong Dollar hurts to export directly and manufacturing sector indirectly.

A low energy price damages to inflation and US grow.

Higher borrowing cost would impact to US spending in context of mixed data.

All reasons restrict FED to introduce a clear time frame for next rate hike. They will wait until :

- Recovery of energy cost.
- Improvement of data.
- Rise of export and manufacturing sector.

That why I choose bearish bias for USDollar             .

- Technical Analysis

Look at on the chart, the E/U price action creates a tough case to buy E/U

E/U now stop at strong resistance levels:

- Kumo cloud.
- SMA100 + SMA200
- 1.1100 key resistance level .
- 50% Fib retracement level.

IT'S DIFFICULT TO BREAK THOSE STRONG LEVELS UNLESS MARKET GIVES A STRONG CATALYST.

THE CATALYST I WAIT IS FED MEETING LIKE I SAID.

i choose bullish bias for EURUSD             , so how to trade ?

I think EURUSD             will retrace at current level, if it retraces, let it does then we will buy at lower level ahead FED meeting.

If it moves higher, simply, we place a BUY stop position at 1.1100, if EURUSD             breaks 1.1100 level, it must move higher, then the buy stop position is activated. 50% Fib retracement is borken : Trend reverses, the BUY STOP position is positive.

That is my final view of EURUSD             next week.

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stream
a year ago
50% correction has nothing in common with FED . A real trader has to know that . Also this chart do not looks very PRO ..
+1 Reply
Sforex PRO stream
a year ago
If you see it's not pro, so you don't need to read it, then create your own. A real trader don't act like you.
+1 Reply
ahmedsa3dy
a year ago
Well done
i want to see ur analyse for gbpnzd if u plz i really need it
Reply
Stirners
a year ago
Your chart has too noise. Don't take it personal but no one can't see nothing....
Reply
Sforex PRO Stirners
a year ago
Have you ever read it carefully or just a quick look and give judgement base on what your first look ?

You need to consider all my analysis, and you will see my analysis is simple than others.

Reply
Stirners Sforex
a year ago
I read your analysis and looks great but your chart has too noise...Only said that. May I recommend you somethin'? Simplicity is all as your writing analysis (is good). Do you understand me now?
Reply
Sforex PRO Stirners
a year ago
This is weekly analysis I talk it for whole week, so how I transfer all my idea just a simple chart ?.

If you watch my analysis in trading week, I don't post chart like that.
Reply
jukilo2000
a year ago
I'm sorry but I did not understand ... the faith of 90% will raise rates and will not disappoint the market, then the dollar should strengthen further? it is likely that the euro lost ground against the dollar or not?
Reply
Sforex PRO jukilo2000
a year ago
We need to know what does market expect. Market, investors need a future path of rate hike, not simple a rate hike decision. What we all know, marker will not position for, market just position for what we dont know.
+1 Reply
kdrewb PRO
a year ago
Ur fundemental analysis is spot on with mine :) technically we are very different however :P
Reply
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