This past February, we offered our predictive analysis which was calling for a renewed rallying at a time when a major reversal was already being considered. In addition to this directional signal, we also offered two distinct targets, namely:
1 - "TG-1 = 38632 - 15 FEB 2014", colored orange indicating moderate probability
2 - "TG-High = 1.38997 - 15 FEB 2014", colored red indicating low probability.
As of this writing (Saturday, March 01st 2014, 3pm CST), the chart has demonstrated that our direction was met, while our targets are nearing - See analysis here: https://www.tradingview.com/v/dCviDOt3/).
Now the question is: "Will price break the 2,051 day old, or 293 week-old that has submitted price to a sustained since the 1.6030 height reached on July 13th 2008?
- MAJOR BANKS ARE EUR/USD SHORT:
Here are the numbers, as far as major bank short positions in the Euro:
1 - BNP Paribas
- Short from 1.3727:
T/P @ 1.32
S/L @ 1.394
2 - Commerzbank
- Short from 1.376:
T/P @ 1.3575
S/L @ 1.3775
3 - JP Morgan
- Short from 1.376:
T/P @ 1.313
S/L @ 1.390
4 - Morgan Stanley
- Short from 1.375:
T/P @ 1.330
S/L @ 1.385
5 - Barclays
- Short from 1.367:
T/P @ 1.340
S/L @ 1.38
6 - Citi
- Short from 1.3692
T/P @ 1.330
S/L @ 1.393
7 - Credit Agricole
- Short from 1.378
T/P @ 1.330
S/L @ 1.416
(Source: eFX News)
In all, there are 7 banks with a total of 9 open positions. 5 are based on macro-economics, while 4 are based on technicals. 2 are short-term, 7 medium. Morgan Stanley aims for the longest at 1.31 vs. a conservative 1.3575 in Commerzbank (Source: eFX News).
In light of this predominantly institutional outlook, traders might re-consider any long position, which is what our predictive analyses and forecasting have been preparing to do as we near our target.
- A SIMPLE CASE OF OVERHEAD RESISTANCE:
A resilient stretching from July 13th 2008 apex extends forward to the present, should put into doubt any continuation past its level.
From a pattern standpoint, a potential , or dominate the end portion of the price action in the . Either one of these patterns define their potential reversal zone ("PRZ") narrowly close to that overhead resistance as well as our own "TG-1 = 1.38632 - 15 FEB 2014" and "TG-High = 1.38997 - 15 FEB 2014".
In the Weekly chart, price prepares to complete a Pattern. In any case, there are plenty of corroborating technical events defining this end of price action as representing a high-probability reversal area, close to that PRZ defined above.
Although our targets are nearing and TG-1 = 38632 is likely to be hit, we are changing our sentimental bias from to , and cautiously change TradingView's "Market Direction Signal" comment from to Neutral.
TradingView.com Moderator, Alias: 4xForecaster
Predictive Analysis & forecasting
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Disclaimer: Forecasts, analyses and directional opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
CROW Signal Service:
Aided by the upward thrust created as the stop levels are taken out, price may be given enough of a power boost to break through the long term trend line from 2008/9, , If only to prove a point. Once/If breached, there is a high probability that 'natural' market dynamics could take over and attempt a stab at 1.40+ .This would then leave just Credit Agricole's in play.
Add to the mix, the ECB's pressing 'will they, won't they' decision regarding any further easing, and this weeks high impact Eurozone data releases and an upsurge, albeit potentially short-lived, continues to look feasible. Time will tell, but I think we can agree that the upcoming week will be pivotal in more ways than one. ;0)
Absolutely right, right on. In fact, the trendline is made just too easy to comply to, so a transgression of that trendline will certain cause the market to cover and push it to new heights, as a contrarian - albeit very real - scenario.
- NOT TIME TO WAGE WAR:
Besides the minority of "Macro" reasons behind these institutional short positioning, the dominant features of the Eurozone remains investors' doubt of any meaningful recovery.
Even a bullish economic outlook from the German dominance holds little weight against a general sense that France, Spain and Italy have major structural impairment to join the German solitary fanfare. Plus, let's consider important internal and external structural wounds that are sure to continue to handicap any Eurozone countries: Aging population, a socially taxing unemployment rate and many other social entitlement benefits sucking the soul and coffers dry ... And now comes a new European conflicts that despite seeming to be at the fringe of the EZ borders, will still call for a defining position of Europe vis-a-vis Moscow.
The opinion here is that a sheepish stance will be net-zero for Ukraine (likely under a diplomatic pretext of watchful containment) as Russia has far more financial resources and military willingness than the combined morale availability in Europe and its allies.
So, expect the European white flag of submission to offer a "neutral" background against that of the Russian's floating across Ukraine's skyline. In other words, who's got the most to lose and the most to spare?