Case For A Major Reversal | $EUR $USD $Gold $UDX
Friends,
This past February, we offered our predictive analysis which was calling for a renewed rallying at a time when a major reversal was already being considered. In addition to this directional signal, we also offered two distinct targets, namely:
1 - "TG-1 = 38632 - 15 FEB 2014", colored orange indicating moderate probability
and
2 - "TG-High = 1.38997 - 15 FEB 2014", colored red indicating low probability.
As of this writing (Saturday, March 01st 2014, 3pm CST), the chart has demonstrated that our bullish direction was met, while our targets are nearing - See analysis here: www.tradingview.com/v/dCviDOt3/).
Now the question is: "Will price break the 2,051 day old, or 293 week-old bearish trendline that has submitted price to a sustained bearish trend since the 1.6030 height reached on July 13th 2008?
INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS
- MAJOR BANKS ARE EUR/USD SHORT:
Here are the numbers, as far as major bank short positions in the Euro:
1 - BNP Paribas
- Short from 1.3727:
T/P @ 1.32
S/L @ 1.394
Cat.: Macro
Term: Medium
2 - Commerzbank
- Short from 1.376:
T/P @ 1.3575
S/L @ 1.3775
Cat.: Technical
Term: Short
3 - JP Morgan
- Short from 1.376:
T/P @ 1.313
S/L @ 1.390
Cat.: Technical
Term: Medium
4 - Morgan Stanley
- Short from 1.375:
T/P @ 1.330
S/L @ 1.385
Cat.: Macro
Term: Short
5 - Barclays
- Short from 1.367:
T/P @ 1.340
S/L @ 1.38
Cat.: Macro
6 - Citi
- Short from 1.3692
T/P @ 1.330
S/L @ 1.393
Cat.: Technical
Term: Medium
7 - Credit Agricole
- Short from 1.378
T/P @ 1.330
S/L @ 1.416
Cat.: Macro
Term: Medium
(Source: eFX News)
In all, there are 7 banks with a total of 9 open positions. 5 are based on macro-economics, while 4 are based on technicals. 2 are short-term, 7 medium. Morgan Stanley aims for the longest at 1.31 vs. a conservative 1.3575 in Commerzbank (Source: eFX News).
In light of this predominantly institutional bearish outlook, traders might re-consider any long position, which is what our predictive analyses and forecasting have been preparing to do as we near our target.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
- A SIMPLE CASE OF OVERHEAD RESISTANCE:
A resilient bearish trendline stretching from July 13th 2008 apex extends forward to the present, should put into doubt any bullish continuation past its level.
From a pattern standpoint, a potential bearish Cypher, Shark or Gartley dominate the end portion of the price action in the daily chart. Either one of these patterns define their potential reversal zone ("PRZ") narrowly close to that overhead resistance as well as our own "TG-1 = 1.38632 - 15 FEB 2014" and "TG-High = 1.38997 - 15 FEB 2014".
In the Weekly chart, price prepares to complete a Wolfe Waves Pattern. In any case, there are plenty of corroborating technical events defining this end of price action as representing a high-probability reversal area, close to that PRZ defined above.
OVERALL:
Although our targets are nearing and TG-1 = 38632 is likely to be hit, we are changing our sentimental bias from bullish to bearish, and cautiously change TradingView's "Market Direction Signal" comment from Bullish to Neutral.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
TradingView.com Moderator, Alias: 4xForecaster
Predictive Analysis & forecasting
-----------------------------------------------------
Follow our forecasts, signals and analyses on Twitter
Alias: @4xForecaster
-----------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Forecasts, analyses and directional opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
This past February, we offered our predictive analysis which was calling for a renewed rallying at a time when a major reversal was already being considered. In addition to this directional signal, we also offered two distinct targets, namely:
1 - "TG-1 = 38632 - 15 FEB 2014", colored orange indicating moderate probability
and
2 - "TG-High = 1.38997 - 15 FEB 2014", colored red indicating low probability.
As of this writing (Saturday, March 01st 2014, 3pm CST), the chart has demonstrated that our bullish direction was met, while our targets are nearing - See analysis here: www.tradingview.com/v/dCviDOt3/).
Now the question is: "Will price break the 2,051 day old, or 293 week-old bearish trendline that has submitted price to a sustained bearish trend since the 1.6030 height reached on July 13th 2008?
INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS
- MAJOR BANKS ARE EUR/USD SHORT:
Here are the numbers, as far as major bank short positions in the Euro:
1 - BNP Paribas
- Short from 1.3727:
T/P @ 1.32
S/L @ 1.394
Cat.: Macro
Term: Medium
2 - Commerzbank
- Short from 1.376:
T/P @ 1.3575
S/L @ 1.3775
Cat.: Technical
Term: Short
3 - JP Morgan
- Short from 1.376:
T/P @ 1.313
S/L @ 1.390
Cat.: Technical
Term: Medium
4 - Morgan Stanley
- Short from 1.375:
T/P @ 1.330
S/L @ 1.385
Cat.: Macro
Term: Short
5 - Barclays
- Short from 1.367:
T/P @ 1.340
S/L @ 1.38
Cat.: Macro
6 - Citi
- Short from 1.3692
T/P @ 1.330
S/L @ 1.393
Cat.: Technical
Term: Medium
7 - Credit Agricole
- Short from 1.378
T/P @ 1.330
S/L @ 1.416
Cat.: Macro
Term: Medium
(Source: eFX News)
In all, there are 7 banks with a total of 9 open positions. 5 are based on macro-economics, while 4 are based on technicals. 2 are short-term, 7 medium. Morgan Stanley aims for the longest at 1.31 vs. a conservative 1.3575 in Commerzbank (Source: eFX News).
In light of this predominantly institutional bearish outlook, traders might re-consider any long position, which is what our predictive analyses and forecasting have been preparing to do as we near our target.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
- A SIMPLE CASE OF OVERHEAD RESISTANCE:
A resilient bearish trendline stretching from July 13th 2008 apex extends forward to the present, should put into doubt any bullish continuation past its level.
From a pattern standpoint, a potential bearish Cypher, Shark or Gartley dominate the end portion of the price action in the daily chart. Either one of these patterns define their potential reversal zone ("PRZ") narrowly close to that overhead resistance as well as our own "TG-1 = 1.38632 - 15 FEB 2014" and "TG-High = 1.38997 - 15 FEB 2014".
In the Weekly chart, price prepares to complete a Wolfe Waves Pattern. In any case, there are plenty of corroborating technical events defining this end of price action as representing a high-probability reversal area, close to that PRZ defined above.
OVERALL:
Although our targets are nearing and TG-1 = 38632 is likely to be hit, we are changing our sentimental bias from bullish to bearish, and cautiously change TradingView's "Market Direction Signal" comment from Bullish to Neutral.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
TradingView.com Moderator, Alias: 4xForecaster
Predictive Analysis & forecasting
-----------------------------------------------------
Follow our forecasts, signals and analyses on Twitter
Alias: @4xForecaster
-----------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Forecasts, analyses and directional opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster