Exiting this trade
Do I believe price could take off north, yes, but equally it be pulled back into the range before heading north again.
Alternatively, as I said previously this pattern does have some similarities to a reversal, so heading south is still on the table.
Jobless Claims news report is out at 13:30 UTC+1. I expect this week's sideways action is due in part to that. We may have resolution at that time, one way or another.
For the moment, I'm happy to take the 6 pips loss and wait on the side lines for a clear direction, if that means I only get 70 pips instead of 100 later, I think I can live with that.
The Pair is trading in a big trading box since the beginning of 2015. The box is reaching from 1.05-1.1475.
The rapprochemenrt to the box`s upper edge increases the risk of falling Prices. Perhaps this Level could be a good Chance for Shorts. The Chance/Risk-Ratio is very nice at that Level (have a look at the short Position in the Chart).
The pure trend theory makes a new maximal shortterm High at 1.1615 possible. Should this Level, respective 1.1475 not be defeated, a new downwave to 1.11/1.07/1.05 can be exspected. Below the box`s bottom edge a fast selloff can be exspected.
In the longterm view, i see a clear bearish pattern - a bearish flag with worst case TP @ 0.8 - This Szenario will only be activ with Prices below 1.05!
For Longs, i also see an anticyclical Long-Chance. For further informations have a look at the following chart