FX:EURUSD Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
I didn't really expect the euro to rise so sharply this week, but the unexpected events that caused a significant risk aversion move in markets starting with Tsipras's resignation Thursday led to an unwinding of carry trade positions, which I believe explains the single currency's rally (note that the dollar didn't really fall so much against other other than the yen). The break above $1.122 was a technical signal to go long (I didn't), and now prices are coming back to a medium-term resistance level at $1.14. The pink trend line in my chart offered a good short opportunity at the end of June and may be of use next week if prices show signs of hesitation like they did between 18 June and 22 June (i.e. wicks on candlesticks at resistance level). I'll be watching EUR/USD for such hints. If $114 breaks however, this would suggest a move back up to $1.15, which is also a major resistance level.