ac7777
Short

EUR/USD: Targeting 0.89

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
101 33 3
The bearish triangle from March 2015 has been a 4th wave which is now complete.

This has to be the final top of wave E, or it isn't wave E. It has ended just below the top of wave C of the triangle (1.3764), which is its theoretical maximum height. The post-triangle thrust measurement from the low of wave 3 suggests a target of 0.89.
ac7777
11 months ago
Today's wave count of the end of the wave E rally:
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ac7777 ac7777
11 months ago
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ac7777 ac7777
11 months ago
Update:
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ac7777 ac7777
11 months ago
If my count is correct, this should soon be heading downward. I think the first major stop along the way could be around 1.0610
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ac7777 ac7777
11 months ago
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ac7777 ac7777
11 months ago
When the repeating E-pattern narrows to an imperceptible scale, the net movement will be more rapidly downward
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ac7777
11 months ago
It appears that wave E has peaked and a first impulsive 5-wave sequence and ABC correction have completed (minor 1st and 2nd waves). This should be the first step in a progressive decline sequence.
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ac7777
11 months ago
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ac7777 ac7777
11 months ago
I anticipate this minor 3rd wave to hit a low near 1.1162-65, then 4th wave to retrace to about 1.1238, followed by a 5th wave to complete this minor wave 1 down near 1.1078. After that, a nearly complete retracement in a 2nd wave back up to 1.1295 area. Then, a larger decline will begin in a next degree 3rd wave down.
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ac7777 ac7777
11 months ago
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ac7777
11 months ago
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ac7777
11 months ago
Alternate count for wave iv: it is looking more like a developing triangle, especially as it has exceeded the wave i extreme but also appears to be on track to settle and end below it. I will still assume the same lower targets as cited above, though, unless something indicates otherwise.
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ac7777 ac7777
11 months ago
The first wave (i) of the down-thrust of wave v has completed. That initial target measurement (yellow vertical line) was 91.25% accurate. I now expect a retracement up to 1.1235-38 before dropping toward the end of wave v which should be below 1.1146.
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ac7777 ac7777
11 months ago
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ac7777
11 months ago
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ac7777 ac7777
11 months ago
I have relabeled the parameters of wave iv according to its actual peaks and lows. This way it yields a thrust measurement (cyan line) much nearer to the yellow vertical line's target near 1.1135, which was derived from measurements taken within the wave E parent triangle. Although this would mean wave iv ended slightly above its corresponding wave i's extreme, I will regard this whole downward motive structure as a leading diagonal and exempt it from the "no-overlap" rule.

Following wave iv, the sequence suggests to me waves (i), (ii) and (iii) down have formed, followed by a rally nearly exactly to the target retracement level (green horizontal/top of smaller purple box). This I interpret as a wave (iv) which, although also slightly exceeding its corresponding wave (i) by a few points, has contracted and ended below it. The thrust measurement from this wave (iv) triangle, if taken as a near 0.786 of the actual thrust to come, also seems to support a total thrust down to around the 1.114 level.

After hitting a low near there completing this structure as a first wave down, we should see a 0.786 retracement back up into the 1.129 area for the second wave.
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ac7777 ac7777
11 months ago
1.1134-1.114 looks like the target of this fourth wave post-triangle thrust, however there are some indications that it will overshoot the target and the end of this 5th wave might be reached at 1.11148.
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ac7777 ac7777
11 months ago
The count up to the moment, and especially this last 4th wave triangle in a long series of 4th wave triangles, seems to be confirming the target near 1.1135 (yellow horizontal). Whether it then overshoots down toward 1.1115 remains just a guess.
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ac7777 ac7777
11 months ago
I have revised my wave count a bit since yesterday. It now looks like the 5th wave is well underway, with a component 3rd wave in progress and targeting around 1.113-1.114, while the end of the 5th wave is likely to hit lower at about 1.1115 before we see a relatively major reversal rally up toward 1.129.
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ac7777 ac7777
11 months ago
Revised:
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ac7777
11 months ago
1.11602 may have been the low for now, as it looks like an impulsive wave up has already begun from there. It could be the first part of a wave 'A' of the ABC rally toward 1.29. A thrust above 1.12 will help confirm this.
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ac7777 ac7777
11 months ago
Correction: 1.29 to 1.129
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ac7777 ac7777
11 months ago
An alternate possibility is that wave 4 is not done yet, is a triangle and will push further down as shown. I need to take a wait and see approach at this point.
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ac7777
11 months ago
An alternate possibility is that wave 4 is not done yet, is a triangle and will push further down as shown. I need to take a wait and see approach at this point.
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ac7777 ac7777
11 months ago
1.114 is looking likely again as the bottom of this sequence.
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ac7777 ac7777
11 months ago
Correction: 1.1114-1.1115
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ac7777
11 months ago
Targeting 1.1115
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ac7777
11 months ago
So far, this wave 4 has been a triangle ending in a wave 'e' which is also a triangle. I believe this spike is the final wave 'e' of 'e' (e:e) and that it should begin contracting in on itself as well and complete below 1.11631, which is the low of wave 1, before price thrusts down in wave 5 toward 1.1115.
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ac7777 ac7777
11 months ago
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ac7777
11 months ago
Well, surprised here. Since wave 'e' has gone above the wave 'a', the perceived triangle is technically invalidated. It may be that the low was reached short of the downside target, or that this is still wave 4 in progress. At this point, having no clarity on immediate direction, I will wait until price either hits a low in the 1.111 area to place a long trade or rallies up to near 1.1295 to go short.
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ac7777
11 months ago
I've stepped back to have a fresh look at this after omitting the minor wave details. This does look to me like a 4th wave up, but I will label it wave 'iv'. In this sequence, wave iii reversed between being 1.786 and 2.0 the length of wave 1 (fairly typical) and this perceived wave iv is now hitting around the .382 retracement (very typical) of wave iii.

This all makes relative sense. I still lean toward a 5th wave (v) bottoming at 1.1115, by reason of several correlations:

#1 it is 2.382 the length of wave i measured from the end of wave ii (the usual suspect for the end of a 5th wave),
#2 it is where the 4th wave triangle (while it lasted) was pointing to,
#3 it is the .786 retracement of the last upward leg of the greater wave E which spawned this downward thrust, and
#4 it happens to be the 100% mark if the yellow horizontal line is 91.257% accurate as an indicator for the bottom of the thrust -- which was precisely the case with the previous yellow horizontal which you can also see in the chart. Those yellow bottoming indicators and their expected subsequent upward retracements (in purple) are measured from within the parameters of greater triangle E.
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ac7777
11 months ago
1.13038 will probably max out this rally, which now seems to me to be the second wave up. After this ends, it should be heading down toward 1.05.
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ac7777
11 months ago
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