The bearish triangle from March 2015 has been a 4th wave which is now complete.
This has to be the final top of wave E, or it isn't wave E. It has ended just below the top of wave C of the triangle (1.3764), which is its theoretical maximum height. The post-triangle thrust measurement from the low of wave 3 suggests a target of 0.89.
Comments
ac7777
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ac7777
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1.13038 will probably max out this rally, which now seems to me to be the second wave up. After this ends, it should be heading down toward 1.05.
ac7777
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I've stepped back to have a fresh look at this after omitting the minor wave details. This does look to me like a 4th wave up, but I will label it wave 'iv'. In this sequence, wave iii reversed between being 1.786 and 2.0 the length of wave 1 (fairly typical) and this perceived wave iv is now hitting around the .382 retracement (very typical) of wave iii.
This all makes relative sense. I still lean toward a 5th wave (v) bottoming at 1.1115, by reason of several correlations:
#1 it is 2.382 the length of wave i measured from the end of wave ii (the usual suspect for the end of a 5th wave),
#2 it is where the 4th wave triangle (while it lasted) was pointing to,
#3 it is the .786 retracement of the last upward leg of the greater wave E which spawned this downward thrust, and
#4 it happens to be the 100% mark if the yellow horizontal line is 91.257% accurate as an indicator for the bottom of the thrust -- which was precisely the case with the previous yellow horizontal which you can also see in the chart. Those yellow bottoming indicators and their expected subsequent upward retracements (in purple) are measured from within the parameters of greater triangle E.
ac7777
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Well, surprised here. Since wave 'e' has gone above the wave 'a', the perceived triangle is technically invalidated. It may be that the low was reached short of the downside target, or that this is still wave 4 in progress. At this point, having no clarity on immediate direction, I will wait until price either hits a low in the 1.111 area to place a long trade or rallies up to near 1.1295 to go short.
ac7777
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So far, this wave 4 has been a triangle ending in a wave 'e' which is also a triangle. I believe this spike is the final wave 'e' of 'e' (e:e) and that it should begin contracting in on itself as well and complete below 1.11631, which is the low of wave 1, before price thrusts down in wave 5 toward 1.1115.
ac7777
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ac7777
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Targeting 1.1115
ac7777
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An alternate possibility is that wave 4 is not done yet, is a triangle and will push further down as shown. I need to take a wait and see approach at this point.
ac7777
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1.114 is looking likely again as the bottom of this sequence.