The USD is being buoyed by the latest economic report, the Fed’s Beige Book, which revealed that economic activity has remained steady in recent weeks, and that credit conditions have understandably tightened following the banking crisis. Additionally, St. Louis Fed's Bullard has been advocating for further rate hikes to counteract persistent inflation and exaggerated recession fears. The recent strong Q1 earnings reports from major US banks like JP Morgan and BofA have also helped to bolster the USD after the sector's crisis in March.
Meanwhile, Euro is receiving support from the expectation that the ECB will pursue interest rate hikes, contingent upon economic data. The health of the region’s banks, as revealed by the ECB Bank Lending Survey (BLS), which is scheduled to be released on May 2, will be a crucial factor in determining whether the ECB proceeds with aggressive rate hikes. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane has also emphasized the importance of April's HICP inflation in shaping the outlook on rates.
In terms of technical analysis, the EUR/USD is currently in a robust uptrend, supported by a dynamic trendline acting as support. Following a pullback on the 61.8% Fibonacci level, the price appears poised to continue its upward trajectory and reach the D point of the AB=CD Fibonacci pattern, indicating a long continuation.
As for upcoming data releases, the ECB's minutes, a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde, and the April Consumer Confidence report will be of particular interest to those tracking the Euro, while Fed commentary, Initial Jobless Claims, and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing will be the primary releases for the US Dollar.
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