4xForecaster

$EUR vs. $USD Continues To Move Towards 1.09373 As Forecast

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
Yesterday, we did an initial study of the background nascent geometry (see it here:
Significant support at 1.06298/6241 Level | $EUR $USD #forex
). As the geometry was still unfolding, we strived to define Point-4 in the interest of entering a LONG position.

This exercise was aided by the method I develop, which simply consists of defining a "Geo Anchor", or a supportive inflection points that typically emerges out of Point-2 to Point-3 leg. This is in lieu of the rudimentary connection between points 1 and 2 - The benefit of the "Geo Anchoring" is that it optimizes the chance that price will return to it, as it will tend to find a more proximal residence. In contrast, the mere plotting of a standard 1-4 Line at these respective points is at times associated with near misses.


snapshot


Again, this exercise is for a background pattern analysis, whereas the foreground is represented by the product of a Predictive/Forecasting Model, which yielded the following qualitative targets:

1 - TG-Hi = 1.09373 - 22 APR 2015

and

2 - TG-Hix = 1.04020 - 22 APR 2015


As the geometry continues to move towards the definition of its Point-5 along its 1-3 Line, the Predictive/Forecasting Model remains the main feature of the price study.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter:
@4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
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.
Hi David,

Since this is a bearis wolfe, you expect this to come down right?
+1 Reply
@LighthouseKeeper - The Predictive/Forecasting Model is what I follow. So, I would typically wait for price to reach the target (the most probable of the two is the TG-Hi, which is a qualitative, i.e.: "Hi" or "Lo" depnding on whether at a bullish or bearish position relative to the approaching price).

If and once this occurs, then I would take a short.

However, I offer the geometry as a visual background to make sense of the price action. On its own, the Predictive/Forecasting Model has no place within the price chart, except for the targets it posts. So, in a way, the geometry is there for your entertainment, but also for added assurance, as it tends to do a good job correlating with the price's intention to approach and hit the Model's targets.


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
TYPO CORRECTION:

The top-most target should read 1.1042, and not 1.0420, of course.


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
24 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$EURUSD moving as forecast; Defined geo.'s Point-5; Lofty targets pending nearby:

snapshot


$EUR $USD #ECB #FED #euro #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
SunnyBTC PRO 4xForecaster
GM David. Are you able to explain how you derived the TGT-Hi 1.09373?
+1 Reply
Hello @SunnyBTC - The Predictive/Forecasting Model "codifies" strength and direction, reversals and retracement levels. I simply take these data and decodify them onto the price field. Works on its own in any market, timeframe, season, day or night, weather, or news.

David Alcindor
+5 Reply
SunnyBTC PRO 4xForecaster
Thanks David. Is the codification process proprietary or can you share this?
+1 Reply
Or should I say, is there something written up somewhere that I could learn from? Thanks :)
+1 Reply
It is not available in any format.

David
+1 Reply
Yes, it's a proprietary method.
+1 Reply
SunnyBTC PRO 4xForecaster
Ok thanks David
Reply
27 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
---------
$EURUSD continues to rally as forecast; Nears 1.09373 as probable reveresal level:

snapshot


$EUR $USD #ECB #euro #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
27 APR 2015 - NOTE:

Looking at the BIG piture:

Is $EUR vs. $USD Rallying Back To 1.38865? #euro #forex $bund

(Source:
Is $EUR vs. $USD Rallying Back To 1.38865? #euro #forex $bund
)


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
SunnyBTC PRO 4xForecaster
Hi David. Closing in on the 10937 target here. Do you still believe it should hold?
Reply
28 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$EURUSD hit target at 1.09373 from 22 APR; Further advance is LESS probable; Eyeing Pt-4 level reversal:

snapshot


$JPY #BOJ
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
Hi David. A internal geo might force price down? Did I place my fibs correctly?
snapshot
+1 Reply
@iefan - Yes.

Also, do not forget that KoD ... A higher attainment from current level is VERY probable, completing that KoD.


David
+2 Reply
SunnyBTC PRO 4xForecaster
Hi David, Iefan. KoD? What is that?
+2 Reply
Hello @SunnyBTC - A KoD is a repetitive pattern wherein a small parabola is followed by a larger parabola, sharing a leveled base, as follows:


snapshot



I have posted several opportunities in the pat when a KoD might develop. They are most powerful at significant historical tops/bots, and less see at relative highs/lows.

Is this answering your question?


David
+3 Reply
SunnyBTC PRO 4xForecaster
Perfect, thanks!
+1 Reply
4x_addict 4xForecaster
Hi David. has point TG-HIX been invalidated now with the price moving all the way high to 1.07? with FOMC tonight do you recon this point will survive?
+1 Reply
Hello, @4x_addict - TG-Hix has two purposes.

The first one is that it represents a "qualitative" target of lesser probability of attainment (relative to TG-Hi and any other numerical or "quantitative" targets. I tend to take most of my profits off of TG-1, since this first qualitative target tends to materialize, and then let a lesser percentage of the trade rise to the TG-Hix - In this case, I did not do this, as I took the entire position out from TG-Hi.

The second one is that it gives me a guidance whether I should remain trading in the timeframe where the targets are defined. In cases where TG-Hix is largely exceeded, the Model tells me that I need to move the analysis to a timeframe that is 4 times the level of the current.

For instance, if this had been a M15, then M14 x 4 = H1, or if a H1, then H1 x 4 = H4. In the case of a H4 discrepancy, then I move on up directly to the DAILY, whereas in the daily, since there are 5 stand market days, then a Daily x 4 = Weekly.

Here, we are getting an indication to abandon the current timeframe and consider the next level: H1 x 4 = H4.

The assumption here is that heavier players with greater price-moving potentials will always interfere with the expectations of lesser timeframe players. So, to answer your question in the context of these rules, it is not TG-Hix that becomes invalid, since that target did get hit in a way that it predicted that price would attain it.

Instead, it is the entire timeframe that has become obsolete and useless by way of the rule detailed above.

Hope this is answering your question.

David Alcindor
+3 Reply
29 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$EURUSD rolled through all targets; "Off-Set" Rule moved likely support toPt-3 at 1.98476:

snapshot


$EUR $USD #ECG #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
29 APR 2015 - TECH-NOTE:

As just explained, this trade has reached all of its targets. Because this occurred in excess of TG-Hix, the H1 timeframe is now abandoned and I will post a chart illustrating price action at the H4 level, once there appear to be a sensible geometry coming through.

Thank you for following through this analysis - I hope it benefited some of you.

Best,


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
nikokoev 4xForecaster
Very nice David! Will whait H4 chart :)
+2 Reply
Hi David. I notice that that you've set a new up target for DXY. Interested to hear your thoughts on EURUSD?
+1 Reply
Hello @SunnyBTC - I already posted an update on $EUR earlier today - Let me know if this answers your question. If not, please elaborate:


-
Is $EUR vs. $USD Rallying Back To 1.38865? #euro #forex $bund



David
+2 Reply
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