On Tuesday, April 9th, I posted that rallies in the 1.09 zone, which represents the resistance of the falling trend line for FX:EURUSD, should be sold with a target at the 1.07 zone support level. The following day, CPI figures came in hotter than expected, triggering the anticipated drop. Now, with the pair at the support level, what can we anticipate next?
Upon examining the chart, it's evident that the euro has shown weakness throughout the year, with rallies being consistently sold off. Additionally, this marks the third test of this support in 2024, and since December's high, the pattern is a descending triangle (and if we trace back from November, we could even speculate a head and shoulders pattern).
Considering these factors collectively, I anticipate a break below 1.07 with a target at the 1.05 support level. Furthermore, if we consider the measured target for both the triangle and head and shoulders patterns, we might even see a drop to 1.02 in the medium term.
Any rallies approaching the 1.08 mark should be viewed as selling opportunities in pursuit of a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.