Watching the year 2018 the EurUsd is looking like a perfect short trade. It topped in the first quarter of 2018 like a descending triangle. The triangle broke down and we reached not just the counted target price but we also break below the 200 SMA which is one important sign of a starting bear market... This big rally from 1.0345 to 1.2558 and the last few weeks of decline is one terribly long yearly cycle. It topped out in a descending triangle and the decline broke below the 200 SMA. One could think that this decline will last for a long time from now and the EurUsd will break below the 2016 December low . If you are looking only on this year's chart it is really showing a drop from 19t April till 29th May (blue trendline). From that date we started to form a simmetric triangle.The triangle broke down a few days ago. As the simmetric triangles are usually continuation patterns the target price could be around 1.0850. 1.0850 is also the 78,6% pullback of this yearly rally... So normally we could wait the tag of 1.0850 before initiating a long position. But the simmetric triangle's target price is at 1.1250... And 4 days ago we were very close to that point when tagged 1.1286. At this point price reversed the next day and we are in a rally mode since then...
We had 1.5 years to drop below 1.0345 but we are not even close to that. It's very likely that EurUsd printed its intermediate cycle low at the target price counted from the simmetric trianagle (1.1292). If I'm right than price will bounce back above the triangle and the only thing will stop this rally for a few days is the 200 SMA. After breaking above the 200 SMA price will be attacking the previous highs and will run to new highs soon.
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We are breaking back into the triangle. If we do it was just a false breakdown and we are definitely running higher.
Be careful with this one my friend. May be an odd year. Relaying a little Martin Armstrong: We broke down through very strong 115 support and tagged the 113 support. If it doesn't close above 115 at month end (descending channel top), this may be a dead cat bounce back below 113 and well beyond.... I believe there are strong and focused geo-political forces at work here beyond the technicals. (Think Turkey having to beg for a 20B loan to prevent collapse, Merkel and Macron not on the same page and a lame duck Drahgi at the ECB not wanting to take his fingers off the scales. Throw a little Trump in there and you may see significantly more flight to the dollar. Actually, throw a LOT of Trump in there.)
chartwatchers
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@bertcoin, I still think the strong dollar is not good for Trump.
Great analysis Apri, I appreciate your consistent big picture analysis. All the markets look like they are turning a corner, gold (up), crude (up), s&p/Nasdaq (down) and the EUR is following suit. Now let’s make some money.