4xForecaster

$EUR To Reverse Per Hennessy Wave Count? | #EUR $USD #ECB #Forex

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
589 11 3
Traders,

I will cut/paste a technical note and commentary just posted on the recent $EURUSD chart. In this present chart, an alternative count is illustrated, and the source of the information will come in the thread discussion - Let me know what you think, and feel free to comment if you are at all familiar with the T.S. Hennessy "New EW Wave Count" methodology.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
24 AUG2014 - T. S. Hennessy Count - Alternate Wave Count


* * * the following chart illustrates an alternate wave count * * *



snapshot




Traders,

Note that I have used wave count in this particular chart using the methodology prescribed by T. S. Hennessy in his free eBook (here is the link for your leisurely review: http://www.sponser.co.il/ForumFiles/0f42bf05-bbb1-4570-9d5e-b9f28e87d412.pdf).

As indicated earlier, the count is a repetitive string of 1-2-3-A-B-4C-1-2-3-A-B-4C-1-2-3-... where the spearheading 4B was surpassed the outermost Point-3 into new territory. If you have problem with deciphering the count, I can share a few tid-bits of info on this, but I can say right now that the most visual traders in our midst will get it quick rapidly.

I will not cut/past any info already available in that book. I am a paying member of Mr. Prechter, Jr. daily news, weekly releases and monthly newsletters, and an avid student of occult geometries. So, this thing is not too foreign to me, and I would say not without the risk of sounding as if to self-inflate, that I can be of some help with the most basic wave count. My rule is a whole lot more lax than some other traders, as I am NOT interested in seeking the right degree, as much as interested in finding out where my count stands in relation to higher and lower timeframe, and in the geometric context of the price development.

Also, a quick word on the current position, relative to the "big picture":

Right now, the chart illustrates a concluding Wave-C of the largest degree available to sight in the chart - See the A-B-C? This is written there, because it actually reflects the corrective count of the 1-2-3-A-B-4C, where 4B is the spearheading segment of that A-B-C count.

Also, if you thus start at the beginning of the Wave-C, you will reduce the degrees as you count foreward along the impulse, starting with roamn numerals, down to parenthesed numerals, down to open numerals.

Here, you will see that this ever shringking count is focusing once again at the bottom most portion of the chart, where the TG-Lo is forecast from the model.

I have also included a b to c count, suggesting that IF we were correctly following the T.S. Hennessy count, then the market would open UP towards these points, so as to complete, then reverse from this a-b-4c condition, BEFORE turning to the completion of the Wave-5, as it would join Wave-(5), Wave-V and Wave-C.

I hope this is coming to sight in your mind's eyes. If not, feel free to ask.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Reply
24 AUG 2014 - Addendum - Tech-Note:


Traders,

If T.S. Hennessy's wave count holds true, then the A-B-C of the largest degree in the H4 chart (240-Min.) is heralding a potential rally of $EUR against the $USD to such a height that would surpass the level carved by the recent Wave-B in the upper portion of that H 4chart - See below:


snapshot



Now, this may be all an academic exercise, but compounded with the predictive model that sees a potential reversal in the 1.31988 to 1.32097 range, where the model's TG-Lo = 1.32097, and based upon the higher timeframe analysis just posted on this link (here:
Nearing A Potential Reversal | $EUR $USD #ECB #FED #Forex $GLD
), one has to wonder whether all that recent bearish fuss will truly materialize into further descent for the EURO.

On a pure technical basis, there is mounting evidence that a counter-trend is preparing, while the data I posted recently is also showing a growing percentage of Euro-positive sentiment (slightly over 66% of traders are now taking a LONG position, per Oanda.com data).

In any case, this is quite an interesting topic of discussion (T.S. Hennessy's new wave count). You are welcome to share your own experience with this novel methodology (book was released in 2009, per edition information).

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Reply
24 AUG 2014 - By the way, Mr. T.S. Hennessy's website dates back to 2010, and a new website exists where he sells a software that uses trendlines. Although you might expect that the software has something to do with his new wave count, I have looked into it, watched the video, and attempted to learn something off of the forum in good faith.

However, I can tell you that I did not see any thread of correlating information between the Fib-based trendline system he sells, and his original new wave count. In fact, I was rather underwhelmed by the software, as demonstrated. You be the judge.

I mention all this, so that you do not fall on that slippery slope of purchasing another "truth revealing' software once again, without some sort of warning. In addition, if you are familiar with the original work of Elliott Wave theory, all this information should really be interesting up to the reading of Mr. T.S. Hennessy's book. Any more than that, and you are on some other commercial adventure - I shared that book because it's free, complete and interesting.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Reply
Hi i like to check out your analysis from time to time as it seems pretty good to me, but... i never heard of the T.S.Hennessy strategy like to know more.
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO lindammartin25
Hello @lindammartin25 - Thank you for chiming in.

First, have you been able to use the link and open the PDF format? Just in case, here is the link to it: http://www.sponser.co.il/ForumFiles/0f42bf05-bbb1-4570-9d5e-b9f28e87d412.pdf.

Basically, the new wave count takes out ALL the nuances and exceptions that are the tedious features of Elliott Wave theories, and pretty much comes up with a very simplified form of the count. It requires to count only to 1-2-3-A-B-4C over and over, down to the tip, and this will simply reduce the analysis to the smallest available degree relevant to the definition of a swing point, which is what EW was originally set out to do, but I find this new, alternate technique quite simple, even though it leads to the same results.

Very fond of it, although I do use EW first, and then Mr. Hennessy's methodology.

David
Reply
CFTC's Commitments of Traders

Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday. Net short denoted by - long by +.

EUR -139K vs -126K prior

JPY -87K vs -81K prior

GBP +13K vs +19K prior

AUD +37K vs +30K prior

CAD +7K vs +18K prior

CHF -15K vs +17Kprior

NZD +12K vs +12K prior
Reply
QUICK NOTE: Revealing the occult market geometries I use in my trading plan:

I have just finished writing an explanation of the methodology I use in my trading. Sort of a game theory application in which I define the application of Fibonacci projections for risk management to my trading. Very simple and approachable.

Here is the link:

https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#5eHLst6YxeVqGlaO

Hope this shed more light on how I do things - Caveat here is that what I am revealing leaves out details of the predictive/forecasting mode. However, you will see how irrelevant it becomes once you concentrate on the geometric information revealed to your mind's eyes, using the Hennessy system as an overlay.

Hope you enjoy it. Feel free to contact me with any question, or share if you find the information valuable - Credit given to the author is courteous and always appreciated.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Here is a visual example of my methodology - A very approachable and user-friendly composite of a simple A-B-C wave count relative to trendline breaks, counted forward towards a predefine Fib level from a larger timeframe - Easy enough?


EXAMPLE OF DAVID ALCINDOR'S HYBRID USE OF BASIC GEOMETRY, HENNESSY COUNT AND FIBONACCI LEVELS:
snapshot




Let me know if I need to clarify. Feel free to pass along if you like it. Here too, credit to author is the cool thing to do - Much appreciated.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Do you have an update on the NewT count on this chart?
+1 Reply
Hello @Midasfx - Planning to update chart ... coming up in the hour - I appreciate your inquiry and curiosity - David
Reply
27 AUG 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
--------------------
$EURUSD caught in an island-bottom? Starting to look like it per waves:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $EUR $USD #forex #ECB
-------------------


snapshot



Traders,

If you are wondering what ever happened to the lowest 4C wave that the dashed arrows were anticipating, I can now say with some confidence that it was represented at the next timeframe down, which in this chart is represent by the arrow following the lowest "b".

In essence, it appears that at this point, the wave counts have been reduced to their smallest degree in this chart, with price having been pushed down via a runaway gap. However, with the current anticipation of a reversal, it also appears to be more and more evident that the current situation under development is that of an island bottom.

Events that would negate this possibility would be a significant impulse continuing to the downside, but as you may have observed, every bearish attempts have been met with a same but opposite force, which has resulted in this clustered activity with a single definable bottom and a distinctive top plateau.

I suspect that if the bullish scenario were to unfold, a major thrust would overcome the current bullish interdiction, in a way that might complete the shaping of an island bottom.

Here too, time will tell.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
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