I will cut/paste a technical note and commentary just posted on the recent EURUSD chart. In this present chart, an alternative count is illustrated, and the source of the information will come in the thread discussion - Let me know what you think, and feel free to comment if you are at all familiar with the T.S. Hennessy "New EW Wave Count" methodology.
Hi i like to check out your analysis from time to time as it seems pretty good to me, but... i never heard of the T.S.Hennessy strategy like to know more.
Basically, the new wave count takes out ALL the nuances and exceptions that are the tedious features of Elliott Wave theories, and pretty much comes up with a very simplified form of the count. It requires to count only to 1-2-3-A-B-4C over and over, down to the tip, and this will simply reduce the analysis to the smallest available degree relevant to the definition of a swing point, which is what EW was originally set out to do, but I find this new, alternate technique quite simple, even though it leads to the same results.
Very fond of it, although I do use EW first, and then Mr. Hennessy's methodology.
David
4xForecaster
⋅
27 AUG 2014 - Update:
From Twitter:
--------------------
EURUSD caught in an island-bottom? Starting to look like it per waves:
If you are wondering what ever happened to the lowest 4C wave that the dashed arrows were anticipating, I can now say with some confidence that it was represented at the next timeframe down, which in this chart is represent by the arrow following the lowest "b".
In essence, it appears that at this point, the wave counts have been reduced to their smallest degree in this chart, with price having been pushed down via a runaway gap. However, with the current anticipation of a reversal, it also appears to be more and more evident that the current situation under development is that of an island bottom.
Events that would negate this possibility would be a significant impulse continuing to the downside, but as you may have observed, every bearish attempts have been met with a same but opposite force, which has resulted in this clustered activity with a single definable bottom and a distinctive top plateau.
I suspect that if the bullish scenario were to unfold, a major thrust would overcome the current bullish interdiction, in a way that might complete the shaping of an island bottom.
Here too, time will tell.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
GenGe
⋅
Do you have an update on the NewT count on this chart?
4xForecaster
⋅
Hello @midasfx - Planning to update chart ... coming up in the hour - I appreciate your inquiry and curiosity - David
4xForecaster
⋅
QUICK NOTE: Revealing the occult market geometries I use in my trading plan:
I have just finished writing an explanation of the methodology I use in my trading. Sort of a game theory application in which I define the application of Fibonacci projections for risk management to my trading. Very simple and approachable.
Hope this shed more light on how I do things - Caveat here is that what I am revealing leaves out details of the predictive/forecasting mode. However, you will see how irrelevant it becomes once you concentrate on the geometric information revealed to your mind's eyes, using the Hennessy system as an overlay.
Hope you enjoy it. Feel free to contact me with any question, or share if you find the information valuable - Credit given to the author is courteous and always appreciated.
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
⋅
Here is a visual example of my methodology - A very approachable and user-friendly composite of a simple A-B-C wave count relative to trendline breaks, counted forward towards a predefine Fib level from a larger timeframe - Easy enough?
EXAMPLE OF DAVID ALCINDOR'S HYBRID USE OF BASIC GEOMETRY, HENNESSY COUNT AND FIBONACCI LEVELS:
Let me know if I need to clarify. Feel free to pass along if you like it. Here too, credit to author is the cool thing to do - Much appreciated.
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
⋅
CFTC's Commitments of Traders
Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday. Net short denoted by - long by +.
EUR -139K vs -126K prior
JPY -87K vs -81K prior
GBP +13K vs +19K prior
AUD +37K vs +30K prior
CAD +7K vs +18K prior
CHF -15K vs +17Kprior
NZD +12K vs +12K prior
4xForecaster
⋅
24 AUG 2014 - By the way, Mr. T.S. Hennessy's website dates back to 2010, and a new website exists where he sells a software that uses trendlines. Although you might expect that the software has something to do with his new wave count, I have looked into it, watched the video, and attempted to learn something off of the forum in good faith.
However, I can tell you that I did not see any thread of correlating information between the Fib-based trendline system he sells, and his original new wave count. In fact, I was rather underwhelmed by the software, as demonstrated. You be the judge.
I mention all this, so that you do not fall on that slippery slope of purchasing another "truth revealing' software once again, without some sort of warning. In addition, if you are familiar with the original work of Elliott Wave theory, all this information should really be interesting up to the reading of Mr. T.S. Hennessy's book. Any more than that, and you are on some other commercial adventure - I shared that book because it's free, complete and interesting.