eurusd has been ranging in a area of about 70 pips since our last update tradingview.com/v/XaIkWbzg/. VAIS 2 has reached the 1st target and we have identified the 2nd on the chart.
The down trendline is still holding but we never base trades on trendlines. We draw them to gauge the reaction of those who do use them as indicators. However, at times a trendline will intersect on a time axis with one of our identified levels, as in the case of AIL 1st target, and when the price and time axis coincide, this will be a more significant event as reaction at that level should be more pronounced as was true at VAIS.
Notice the reaction to the AIL and VAIS 2nd target levels. We interpret this price action as follows: Selling pressure is still strong enough to push price below the top of the AIL entry range, but not strong enough to reach the VAIS 2nd target to the pip, which means two things:
1. sellers exited positions 5 pips early to capture profits but for all intents and purposes the trade hit the target. Currency traders are very familiar with the tendency of eurusd to frontrun targets by up to 10 pips or so . This is significant in the context of this time-frame because it shows that there is a pause at a pre-identified price level. The VAIS 2 has reacted nicely and a good intraday profit of some 70 pips has been gained but there is not enough interest to push price down further at this point.
2. There has been no real concerted effort by buyers to support price above 1.28, as the retrace back to the VAIS 2 was as much caused by sellers exiting as it was by a few buyers. In these situations we will set a tight TRLSTP on the short and if it stops out, we will set a Buy Stop where we are willing to re-enter. The VAIS 2 trade was a setup only for scalpers and daytraders and they are accustomed to multiple entries and exits daily.
It is difficult at first for many to grasp that every trade has a specific entry and targets. It may appear that price action is random, but nothing could be further from the truth. Every chart displays reaction levels that are a mixture a scalping, day trade, ST Swing, IT Swing, LT Swing, and position trades. It is just a matter of identifying each and understanding where and why the reactions take place where they do.
Not understanding this concept and/or not knowing where these levels are results in traders entering a ttrade that they mistakenly think is a swing trade entry when it is really a daytrade or scalp level or vice versa. Not knowing the target level causes a trader/investor to hold when they should exit, or exit too early. Each trade must be managed in the context of its true entry and target level to optimize profit and minimize risks.
The ST Short entry identified in this chart tradingview.com/v/uZsJ6HFx/ and Aggressive Short Term Short identified an this chart tradingview.com/v/6JUouvlA/ are still valid and they are the most important short levels to keep in mind. All the other identifeid levels are intraday and price can alternate between the longer time-frames without changing the real trend. The 1st target of the ST Short is a level that will be watched very closely.
If this level is reached, normal price action would be a retrace to the next short level. If the price continues to fall without a retrace then the 2nd target should be reached quickly. But we will have to wait and see what happens at that time.
The targets identified for AIL are also valid for AIL 2 at this point in time.
Comments
darcy_kincaid
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ALL 3 AIL long targets reached. 120 pip iintraday profit. Triple bullseye.. Newest intraday published chart tradingview.com/e/IP1Eirlv/. Reacting to AIS and intraday short not shown on chart.
ThisTejas
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can someone point me in the right direction? I'm not familiar with VAIS, VAIL, AIL, ST, IT, LT, etc
darcy_kincaid
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tradingview.com/v/kJwpnbFJ/ Read the explanation for the terms on the chart as well as the comments in our other charts. ST = Short Term, LT = Long Term. Common terms just abbreviated.
Our analysis considers all intraday chart time-frame trades as aggressive to one degree or another in an ascending order; aggressive, very aggressive. The only traders who trade these intraday time-frames as a regular strategy are daytraders and scalpers. By their very nature they are aggressive entries. Likewise, traders who base trade decisions on a 133 tick chart are by definition more aggressive traders than those who base their decisions on a 60 minute chart, etc.
Following this naming convention to its' logical extension, there can be no such thing as a LT intraday trade because the two terms are mutually exclusive. Any trade not referencing Intraday in its' description is a trade that will be reacted to by those whom base their trades on DAY,WEEK, or MONTH charts and are therefore termed accordingly; Short Term, Intermediate Term, or Long Term. Each of these terms can correctly be applied to any DAY, WEEK, or Month chart. For example this chart identifies a LT Swing trade on the WEEK chart that was 10 years from entry to 3rd target. tradingview.com/v/6OxkD2n2/. Typical market behavior.
One of the most basic concepts that many do not give sufficient weight to is determining who is actually trading at a certain price and what is the entry, failure, and target for that trade.
This of course is our opinion but the accuracy of our analysis speaks for itself. If you need more assistance, let us know.