Back in the (2hr) Channel again... Will price drop...?
---- ANALYSIS ----
... Price tried twice (unsuccessfully) to rise out of 100 pip channel
... Price also crossed 2h (yellow) trendline and is bouncing between various 2hr-EMAs
... 2hr-EMA(24) in light-blue is currently providing support AND also aligns with "chunk" of support candles from late May.
... small doji has formed (possible BUILDUP)
---- ACTIONS ----
... Will set (conservative) Pending SELL @ 1.1230 with expectation to ride price downward toward bottom of channel.
... Depending on price action, may enter aggressively as soon as 1.1240...
... IMPORTANT NOTE: higher-frame price action still suggests Bullish momentum.
... So, be ready to change to BUY if price rises/closes above yellow trendline again..!
... Price tried twice (unsuccessfully) to rise out of 100 pip channel
... Price also crossed 2h (yellow) trendline and is bouncing between various 2hr-EMAs
... 2hr-EMA(24) in light-blue is currently providing support AND also aligns with "chunk" of support candles from late May.
... small doji has formed (possible BUILDUP)
---- ACTIONS ----
... Will set (conservative) Pending SELL @ 1.1230 with expectation to ride price downward toward bottom of channel.
... Depending on price action, may enter aggressively as soon as 1.1240...
... IMPORTANT NOTE: higher-frame price action still suggests Bullish momentum.
... So, be ready to change to BUY if price rises/closes above yellow trendline again..!
Trade active:
6pm (EST)
...BUY order @ 1.12804 triggered.
...SELL order cancelled.
...BUY order @ 1.12804 triggered.
...SELL order cancelled.
Trade closed: stop reached:
(Painful groan..!)
Comment:
(Trader Journal Notes)
... Initial analysis was correct but I clearly mis-timed the market.
... subsequent back-and-forth price action made me question my initial analysis and I entered LONG for a loss.
... Adding to this mistake: At 6am (EST), market made a seismic drop to a low of 1.1200 and as of 9am, price has rebounded to (now) ceiling of 1.1230.
... (It's also worth noting that there were no significant news announcements to prompt such a drop during London session.)
... CONCLUSION: Need to personally improve Patience to avoid 'front-running' the market. I may also need to develop "overnight" strategy to capture pips that develop during London session while asleep.
... Initial analysis was correct but I clearly mis-timed the market.
... subsequent back-and-forth price action made me question my initial analysis and I entered LONG for a loss.
... Adding to this mistake: At 6am (EST), market made a seismic drop to a low of 1.1200 and as of 9am, price has rebounded to (now) ceiling of 1.1230.
... (It's also worth noting that there were no significant news announcements to prompt such a drop during London session.)
... CONCLUSION: Need to personally improve Patience to avoid 'front-running' the market. I may also need to develop "overnight" strategy to capture pips that develop during London session while asleep.
... Price turned upward with 9am-11am (EST) candle going above P-Channel (and trendline) and then closing at P-Channel upper limit.
... At this point, equal chance of BULLISH breakout vs. previous BEARISH analysis (higher timeframes also support BULLISH momentum - see Daily snapshot below)
... Will continue to monitor action and set O.C.O. BUY order at 1.1270-80
... If BUY order executed, will cancel SELL @ 1.1230 and expect open price-run to approx. 1.1400.
REF: EUSUSD Daily chart