ICmarkets
Long

Our take on the EUR pair so far...

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
610 0 9
Weekly view: Following the indecision candle painted two weeks ago, the EUR currency continued lower last week, losing around 260 pips in value and driving itself into range demand at 1.0519-1.0798 by the close 1.0736. Therefore, at least from a technical standpoint, we could see this pair possibly advance from here this week.

Weekly levels to watch this week fall in at: 1.0519-1.0798.

Daily view: Moving down to the daily timeframe , we can see that other than the somewhat pitiful attempt made by the bulls on Thursday, the EUR did indeed trade in the red for the entire week. The bearish onslaught ended with price shaking hands with demand coming in at 1.0658-1.0722. This area not only sits within the above said weekly range demand, but also coincides nicely with a bullish alternate AB=CD pattern at 1.0697. Should we see a rebound from this region, areas to keep an eye on come in at the broken Quasimodo line at 1.0818, followed closely by the swap supply seen at 1.0846-1.0903. In the event the bears continue punishing this pair south this week, however, we’ll then be looking down to demand drawn from 1.0519-1.0583 (sits within the extreme of the aforementioned weekly range demand).

Daily levels to watch this week fall in at: 1.0658-1.0722/1.0818/ 1.0846-1.0903/1.0519-1.0583.

4hr view: Friday’s nonfarm payrolls number came in positive at 271k versus 181k expected, whilst the unemployment rate dropped to 5% against an expected 5.1%. This, as you can imagine, saw the EUR/USD             spiral south taking out numerous 4hr technical levels along the way. As we entered into the final few hours of trade, nonetheless, price begun to consolidate between demand seen at 1.0664-1.0701 (located within the daily demand area mentioned above at 1.0658-1.0722) and mid-level resistance 1.0750.

Pushing forward, this morning’s open 1.0727 made very little difference to the overall technical position of this market. As such, taking into account that price is currently trading around both weekly and daily demand (see above) at present, today’s spotlight will be on either the demand below at 1.0664-1.0701, or a break above or retest of 1.0750 for confirmed longs. Target’s to keep an eye on should one manage to spot an entry long from these barriers today come in at psychological resistance 1.0800, followed closely by the broken Quasimodo line at 1.0819 and mid-level resistance 1.0850.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 1.0664-1.0701 Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area) watch for offers to be consumed around 1.0750 and then look to trade any retest seen at this level (confirmation required).
• Sells: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).

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