ICmarkets

EUR/USD Are we in for lower prices sometime this week?

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
115 0 0
EUR/USD:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• The sellers are still pushing the buyers to their limits within the weekly demand area at 1.34760-1.36314 with buyers at the moment showing very little interest.
• The daily timeframe shows a spike/tail deep into daily demand at 1.34760-1.35265 with very little interest being seen by the buyers at the moment (look at that selling wick just forming!). A break below the aforementioned daily demand area could well see prices testing daily demand below at 1.33984-1.34397.

The market opened at 1.35247 and the buyers took immediate control pushing prices up to as high as 1.35479 hitting what appears to be 4hr temporary resistance (1.35407).

Above this 4hr temporary resistance level, there appears to be a clear path up to the 4hr decision-point area (supply) at 1.35714-1.35609, as the wick marked with a circle has likely cleared any traders attempting to fade the area, but also any breakout buyers in the process.

Taking into consideration our current location on the higher timeframe it does not look good for the buyers at present. However if we are to indeed see a break of Weekly demand at 1.34760-1.36314, pro money will most likely require the liquidity for a move such as this, so a push up to the 4hr decision-point area (supply – levels above) may well be seen before we see a nice sell off. Keep an eye on the following areas for a bullish reaction that could possibly take price up to the aforementioned 4hr decision-point area. 1.35164, which could be hit very soon, and of course the 4hr demand area below at 1.34760-1.34943.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
• No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below the decision-point supply area (1.36632-1.36485) at 1.36416. The reasoning behind placing a pending sell order here is due to the simple fact we have seen buyers consumed at multiple lows and demand areas below, thus making it a low-risk high-probability trade.
• Pending sell orders (Green line) area seen just below the 4hr decision-point area (1.35714-1.35609) at 1.35596. The reason a pending sell order was allocated here is because this is where pro money (on this timeframe) possibly made the decision to sell price into the 4hr demand below at 1.35018-1.35375.
• P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below supply (1.37224-1.37028) at 1.36894. A P.A.C order was selected here due to the reaction seen at the aforementioned supply area proving its validity. However, pro money may well decide to push price higher into this supply area if/when price returns to it, thus making it a risky trade for a stop above the high 1.36995 which could be very easily be stopped out if a pending sell order was set, hence the need to wait for confirmation.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders are seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 1.36416 (SL: 1.36584 TP: Dependent on price action approach) 1.35596 (SL: 1.35768 TP: Dependent on price approach). P.A.C: 1.36894 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).
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