What I believe could be a mid shortlived push until the high levels seen at the back end of september will be determined by the improvement of the US data and also the risk aversion within europe. as Stocks continue to rally and the Euro0.69% used as funding currency, less supply will be available pushing prices up the mark.
My positions target is close only because I am about to hit my yearly target and therefore I have no need to risk more than necesary. But as long as the situation continues as it is, the long bias will be present with quite big retractions.
We have seen (since begining of 2015) that retractments have been very deep always looking for either 61% fibo levels or re-visiting previous lows forming many bats, gartleys and other patterns that drive bulls into the pair.
The only thing that could change this would either be the actions of the FED (and clear actions would be needed) or a change from a positive correlation of stocks and Euro0.69% to negative. also this could be changed if the ECB decides to deeper the and extend it, producing a negative impact in the EZ currency.
So! to summarise,
- Postive correlation and risk aversion moving the Euro0.69% up.
FED still no signs of a rate hike as US data still not quite there yet
deep retractments forming very juicy entries for speculators
ECB could interviene if the price of the EUR0.69% continue its way up with firther Easing.
so my recommendation as I have been saying so far >
- precaution on your entries and SToP LOSSES.
make sure all the technical analisys aligns to the fundamentals
manage your risk using small positions.
keep an eye on the ECB, FED and SNB officers meetings, minutes and communications with special attention to what Mario Draghi and Yellen changes between statement to statement.