The major trend support and Senkou B (52 days avg) support is at 1,2675, this should hold evenb if we see some spiky correction again. Daily trend reversal would take place only above this level, with further confirmation with Chikou Span crossing above Price candles.
How is the momentum? Well, the momentum has lost a lot. stays touch above 20 level and still has the positive divergence. All the longer components (Kijun Sen, Senkou A and B) started to point flat too, which may be an indication that the most likely scenario will be a sideaway consolidation and range trading until year end.
All in all the major trend is still , but with decreasing momentum. As mkt positionning is quite short on this pair, and some players tend to square positions going into year end, something really major should happen to push it further down. Of course a very strong GDP or other supportive macros numbers could do the round, but from ECB's side more talk alone I think won't be enough.
4 Hrs: Once it looks like it can start a counter trend, next it looks like it can continue trending lower, but in fact it is stuck in a wide range 1,2355 - 1,2555. Thus we have a tightenning triangle. So instead of using signals (which as a trend following system is not really useful in sideaway mkts) we rather have to look at momentum indicators, and the horizontal + trend key levels for further indications. I don't prefer range trading as we get cought with too much false signals and too much stops with zero P/L, so for now I just wait for a breakout.
Be careful, the "fuel level" may get too low. The best I expect from EURUSD until year end is a sideaway move in a wide range, but I give some increasing chance for even a larger position unwind upto 1,2650-1,2700 area. In any of these cases the bears will face more problems regarding the technical indicators. We'll see.
(Note: I am neutral/small short in USD in my portfolio.)