Last week saw only bearish momentum on this pair, culminatiing in a strong bearish candle for the week. Price has been trapped in a range for some months now, and a potential low risk range based trade has setup as price closed for the week right at support. However, I feel the better trade idea is to get short in anticipation of a bearish breakout.
Extra Confirmation:
A failed breakout to the upside, which usually sees the lows retested
DMI- has crept above 20 and is sloping upwards
ADX is right at 20
On daily timeframe, DMI- and ADX values support a strong trend