- Prices have been trading inside a bearish channel, registering lowers highs & lows since 2008. The long-term trend was then bearish.
- However, since 2016 and its impact over 1.0320, the market hasn’t been able to register any new low and even rebounded inside the 1.0615/1.1515 zone. This bullish acceleration has driven the market to a clearing of the upper band of their long-term bearish channel. This break-out has been validated by the RSI whereas the 89EMA is now playing a support role to the market.
- Clearly, this break-out is unlocking a new bullish potential by invalidating the previous long-term bearish trend. However, the market will have to successfully clear the 1.2116/1.2556 zone (23.6% Fibo) in order to register a new high and start a new bullish trend towards 1.3300 (38.2%), the 1.3970/1.4218 zone (50%) and higher by extension.
- Les prix ont évolué à l’intérieur d’un canal baissier, enregistrant des creux & sommets de plus en plus bas depuis 2008, la tendance long-terme était donc baissière.
- Cependant, depuis 2016 et son impact au-dessus de 1.0320, le marché n’est pas parvenu à enregistrer de nouveau plus bas et a même rebondi depuis la zone des 1.0615/1.1515. Cette accélération haussière a conduit le marché à un franchissement de la borne haute de son canal baissier de long-terme. Ce franchissement a été validé par le RSI alors que la moyenne mobile exponentielle à 89 périodes joue désormais un rôle de support pour les prix.
- Clairement, ce franchissment débloque un potentiel haussier en invalidant la précédente tendance baissière de long-terme. Cependant, le marché devra également s’affranchir de la zone des 1.2116/1.2556 (23.6% Fibo) afin de valider le démarrage d’une nouvelle tendance haussière vers 1.3300 (38.2%), la zone des 1.3970/1.4218 et même plus haut par extension.
Hi, i see you have monthly chart here. what would be your entry and stoploss on this particular currency pair if one were to trade long on it?
PierreVeyret
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@sambu, Thanks for your message. My invalidation point is below 1.1515 (plain green line) so any closure below this point would invalidate or delay the scenario. However, this level adjusted of the market volatility would give a S/L towards 1.1120. This may seem a bit far from current prices but the Risk/Reward ratio still stays correct according to the bullish potential towards the 1st, 2nd and 3rd target (red boxes).