Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD on 30.07.15

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
Summary Wednesday:
Today most of the day the market behaved fairly stable waiting for the FOMC notes. To greater volatility occurred after the announcement notes. The currency pair after breaking the resistance level at around 1.1065 eventually turned south, breaking the 1.10 level. At the moment, the minimum recorded in the second support around 1.0966.

The Fed today confirmed that it is ready to raise interest rates. Reach them most likely in September. The Fed statement confirmed moderate economic growth and a steady improvement in the labor market and reducing unemployment. Inflation is still below expectations, but should in the medium term aim objective of 2%.

Economic calendar for Thursday:
9:00 EUR in Spain CPI (y / y) (Jul)
9:00 EUR Spain's GDP (q / q) (Q2)
9:00 EUR HICP in Spain (y / y) (Jul)
9:55 EUR German Unemployment Change (Jul)
9:55 EUR German unemployment rate (Jul)
10:00 EUR ECB's Economic Bulletin
14:00 EUR German CPI (m / m) (Jul)
14:30 USD GDP (q / q) (Q2)
14:30 USD GDP deflator (q / q)
14:30 USD ascendant declared unemployed

Tomorrow we have a very important US data namely the GDP for the second quarter. Investors certainly will expect better readings which should reinforce expectations for a quick increase in interest rates in September. Also noteworthy data on German unemployment change which will give the answer in what condition is the German economy, given the recent turmoil with Greece.

Forecast for Thursday:
Yesterday the market back below the downtrend and today repelled from the resistance level at 1.1065 and there was a further decline. Support for the supply of the FOMC are records that suggest possible rate hike in September.
The preferred option tomorrow, it will be a variant with a predominance of declines. Market after the defeat of support at 1,0966-69 (50% fibo level drops 1,1218-1,0808), should direct towards the next support level of 1.0916 that is. Lots of tomorrow will depend on macroeconomic data from the US. Every good data will support the dollar and confirm the thesis of the rise in interest rates.

Otherwise, if we know the good data from Germany and the US worse possible will increase the area of 1.1065 and 1.1129 levels.

Note: The market certainly will assume the September term and this should support the dollar in a wider horizon. It is a possible strengthening of the dollar in August as an attempt to discounting and overtaking facts.
nice forecast. ;)
+1 Reply
RobertPapon PooyaSalehipour
Thank you very much. Every time I try to do the exact weather and easy to read.
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