Has the EURUSD-train left the station?

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
Good question. A pretty weak currency, versus, clearly, the strongest.

USDOLLAR             is flying high, and the greenback has seen increases in 11 of the last 13 weeks.

This is certainly reflected in the EURUSD             which is dropping like a stone, and where there may be some time between significant setups, simply because of the speed of the drop.
SNB’s stunt resulted in a further boost, which has pushed the price down below 1.1650 - the lowest price in 10 years.

Momentum is so heavily bearish , and after SNB has pulled the peg, the largest bull in the EUR is gone.

I have missed the train a couple of times, but with just a bit of positive announcements on Thursday from "Super Mario", and his friends, a general pullback in the EUR could easily happen.

Here is the EURUSD             one of the pairs I would look towards.

The Friday (16/01) candle has formed a candle with a large lower shadow, while Monday's (19/01) candle, have formed an inside bar . This suggests, that this could be the next swing low, either due to profit-taking, or expectations for the ECB meeting on Thursday - or a combination of both.

Whether or not the bulls will take momentum here, the next few days will tell.
Should this happen, I do not think that the bulls will keep the momentum to break 1.20. This is a key level, combined with a 50% Fibonacci retracement , and probably, the 50ema will also come into play here. I expect that the bears will defend this level reasonably well, and therefore I look for 1.20 to jump on EURUSD             train.

If this scenario unfolds, I do not see why we should not fall to 1.14 and maybe even lower.
Conversely, I think we should break above 1.25 before we can talk about a decent trend change, and I begin to consider buying. The break of 1.25, however, is reasonably unlikely within a reasonable time.

Fundamental analysis is not my strongest side, but I'm afraid that expectations for the meeting on Thursday is too high, and if the ECB is not able to meet the expectations, EURUSD             will fall further, and the train will move on.
However, I am also very careful about jumping the gun.

Either way, I look forward to the ECB meeting on Thursday.

As always, further discussions, comments and feedback are always welcome.

Happy Trading

// Laban132
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