Johanes

JLS: EURUSD Long and Short Target Zone 1.1800-1.0800

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
The estimated exchange rate target zone of the EURUSD is 1000 PIPs with directional trend to downward. The pair has reached her central parity 1.1300/1.1100 and the CHF recarrying the EURCHF as well as JPY recarrying the EURJPY . The carrying and re-carrying the the CHF and JPY limited the EURUSD to central parity and to support the EURUSD to upward.

The EURCHF and the EURJPY will continue to move to upward in accordance to their current interest rate differentials of medium term exchange rate target zones and to defend the weakening of EUR against USD by lifting the price from the level of 1.1100/1.1300 to upward to the level of 1.1550 and may back to the level of 1.1800 the upper ceiling.

Should the EURCHF and the EURCJPY complete their upward movement by their current interest rate differentials then the EURUSD will be in "deep drop" to her lower ceiling estimated at 1.0800 and may pressured down to 1.0500. This deep drop will be associated with the unwinding trading by the CHF and JPY on EURCHF and EURJPY . All these price movements are in compliance to monetary systems and their prices are assumed to be stable by monetary assumption.

Thus, long the current upward and short the future downward is rationale and justified by monetary price fluctuation analysis.There is no assurance for EURUSD will reach the 1.1550 and 1.1800, but it is assured to be with deep falling to 1.0800/1.0500 in line to her interest rate differential price trend, therefore the lowest risk to trade EURUSD is to short in the future from whatever the level is lifted to upward and the EURCHF as well as EURJPY already reach their upper ceilings.
Mar 14
Comment: JPY carry traders are pausing to wait central banks' refining policy and interest rate directional policy at current economic slowdown globally as provoked by the IMF and the global central banks. Global investors also refining their investment portfolios to assure profit booking for their shareholders' dividend.

No sign of unwinding by the carry traders yet, but pauses may take sometime before resuming to carry. This will result the resuming of major pairs to downward ( NZDUSD , AUDUSD , GBPUSD , EURUSD ) and to upward ( USDCAD ) as their interest rate differentials' price trends. However at mixed performance of price fluctuation.

GBP-pegged pairs could be in harmony on pressuring the positive interest rate differential pairs ( GBPCHF , GBPJPY and GBPEUR ) to downward (note EURGBP to upward) and supportive to pressure the negative interest rate differential pairs ( GBPUSD , GBPNZD , GBPAUD and GBPCAD ) to downward. Thus, at current market environment, the GBP-pairs in play.
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