EURUSD at crossroad after overshooting, Next is a SHORT to 1.100

its been a little volatile with EURUSD this week. so i have furiously been monitoring my trades

1. -- Completed Short Entry at 1.1306 , Exit at 1.1231
2. -- Completed Long Entry at 1.1219 , Exit at 1.1303
3. -- Active Short Entry at 1.1342 , Exit 1 at 1.1230 , Exit 2 at 1.1170, Exit 3 at 1.1000

Comment:

EUR/USD continues its march north this week and still targets the key 200-day SMA at 1.1364 amidst a significant increase in volume and despite the down tick in open interest. Open interest decreases when institutional holders and writers of options (or buyers and sellers of futures) close out their positions. Volume measures the number of options or futures contracts being exchanged between buyers and sellers, identifying the level of activity for that particular contract

So going by this explanation is it feasible to assume that those EURUSD bulls are taking some profits of the table before the resistance at SMA200 ?

Comment:

NOTE: 1
Rising prices in an uptrend while open interest is on the decline indicates that short sellers are covering positions. Money is leaving the EURO Futures /Options ; this is a bearish sign for EURUSD. which is what we have seen in the futures/ options market today

NOTE: 2
Rising prices in an uptrend while open interest is on the rise indicates that new money is coming into the market (reflecting new buyers). This is considered bullish. -- The Last 5 days have been bullish for EURUSD

Comment:

Short Exit 1 for 1.1230 has been met , so take some profits off the table , We will try and make a run for Exit 2 at 1.1170 but expect a dead cat bounce before we resume the downtrend. The FED and ECB have something to say about it

Comment:

Short Exit 2 at 1.1170 is almost upon us. So you can take profits off the table at this time and leave a small portion for the 1.1100 run . We have a lot of automated funds trying to get out due to short squeeze at 1.1180 region. if that breaks then we are falling like a stone to 1.1120 area

Comment:

on EURUSD Daily chart
1 -- We failed to break the SMA200 Resistance
2 -- We broke down, the SMA100 support
3 -- We broke down the SMA50 support
4 -- The only Major support is now at 1.1126 area ( 2019 May 26, 30 & 31 close )

Mario Draghi ( ECB) is ready to add stimulus to EU Economy and cut rates to stem weakening conditions but also US tariffs . So most likely the EURO will continue to drop further

Comment:

Weakening or devaluing the EURUSD helps deflate the US tariffs threat with a weak EU economy.

France 10-Year yield have gone Negative for the first time in history indicating worse Economic conditions than expected .

At the moment we are grinding through orders at the 1.1192 to 1.1170 major Support Area. Otherwise expect some volatility in this area until those exit and short squeeze orders are done . it might take hours or a couple of days to go through it

NOTE: if we break this area then we are headed to 1.1126 region

Comment:

The major support area of 1.1192 to 1.1170 is going to be a very tough area to break , there are a lot of Stop orders and Squeeze orders plus automated funds trying to reposition or get out of the way. Expect a major fight between the EURUSD Bulls ( USD Bears ) and the EURUSD Bears ( USD Bulls)

Comment:

As of this update -- 11:31 am EST (New York Time ) , EURUSD is so much under pressure and the EURUSD Bulls are holding on to any news from US . There is very high volatility

Comment:

GLOBAL BOND YIELDS ARE GETTING NEGATIVE --indicator for Slow growth or recession in EU and JAPAN . Note: US is also slowing down due to the other economies slowing down

GERMANY BUND 10 Year = -0.320%
JAPAN 10-YEAR NOTE = -0.119%
UK LONDON GILT 10 YEAR = 0.806%
US T-NOTE 10 YEAR = 2.053%

Comment:

US FED left the Interest rate unchanged. Mario Draghi and ECB wants the EURUSD lower. so what now ? US FED vs ECB ( King Dollar VS EURO )

-- The fundamentals have not changed in EURO Zone and the growth is slowing & cross-currents risks are getting higher

-- IMO , i think the EURUSD moves lower after today's bounce. EURUSD can't move up if US Tariffs threat , US-CHINA trade war and Slow growth in EU continues

Comment:

USD is being sold in early Asian session and the EURUSD has shot up to around 1.1263 from the daily lows 1.1228 after the FOMC Dovish stance which allowed the USD to collapse and the US Yield to fall

What is ironic is that EURUSD is still rallying while EU Zone economies growth are worse than US economy at the moment

" TECHNICALLY" the following EU countries have entered recession
-- GERMANY
-- FRANCE
-- ITALY

but also ECB wants the EURO lower below 1.100 Level . So why is the EURUSD Rallying apart from FOMC dovish stance ?

Asian currencies want a higher or overvalued USD i.e they want the Asian Currencies to be undervalued to take advantage of the trade , tariffs and slow growth in Asia

Let's close any position we have open and wait for a clear direction at this point

Comment:

Dollar (USD) rapidly Collapses in early Asian session from 97.26 to 96.91