Whilst the price has dropped down from 3.60, the retracement a little lower than the 50% fib seems to be almost done. The price as bounced off the long term trend line and a previous resistance level (which should now serve as support). For some strange reason, the stock market moves the price of gold miners based on the gold price. I do not agree with this view as most miners hedge their sales at comfortable prices but it is what it is. Henece keep your eyes on gold prices...but also consider the AUD rate, emerging market routs, trade wars and a world not dealing well with change.
Switching over to the Daily chart, I expect a retracement in price towards the trendline once it breaks past $2.98. There is also a gap in price around the $2.90 zone.
Wiz_of_Oz
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Thank you for your good wishes. If gold burst above $1220-22 (USD) with good momentum, we should see good price appreciation. I think you and I are on different trading strategies and that depends on the risk versus reward that each is willing to accept. I work with a max SP, max total amount invested, risk versus reward expectations and tight stop losses.Hope this helps...and losses are part of the game.EVN is still making higher highs and higher lows till the price action proves otherwise. A burst above the 50 Weekly MA would be wonderful. Happy trading.
Blacklodge
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@ktal, looking good for today's open. I sold WPL at a tiny profit and bought EVN at 85 yesterday. I was looking for a 1D close above the down trendline and 50EMA at around $1210. Also went long 15 contracts at $1216. I think the record number of shorts are now closing out their positions pushing the price up. In any case, good luck to both of us! At the very least, we should be able to breakeven given prices are hopefully now well beyond our entries. Although my $1216 might get tested, but hopefully not!
Blacklodge
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I agree with your sentiments. I recently sold out of EVN and am waiting for a clear reversal signal in the price of gold before I buy back in. This includes a comfortable close above $1218. What do you think of EVN vs NCM? Which do you think is a better investment for the sole purpose of making money in the coming crash? IE. Which do you think will go up more in % terms? Or do you think a split between the two is best?
Wiz_of_Oz
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@Blacklodge, I am expecting the price of gold to stabilise around $1182 USD but with the AUD depreciating it is a difficult call. XAU/AUD is currently around $1677 and production costs will play a role. I am not a fan of NCM (nor have I done a TA on its price action) which has also been making lower lows and has a major support around the 18.0 mark. I prefer the junior gold miners who will probably offer better appreciation. I am also looking at PNR, SLR and Saracen. Hopefully will get a few ideas out soon.
Wiz_of_Oz
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@Blacklodge, Let me add one more to my list - MOY.
Blacklodge
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@ktal, Congrats, looking good for you. I increased my WPL holding instead, so missed the latest push, but am looking closely at re-entering. I just want to see a close above the 1D 50EMA and downtrend line around $1221, and even though the 4 hour Ich looks good, being on the correct side of the 1D would be nice too (although probably not conducive to an early entry). Hopefully EVN doesn't go too much higher before this happens. As for the juniors, I'm sure they're fine, but they scare me a bit because I lost a few hundred $ in 08 and I try not to put much in anything outside the mid to large caps.
Wiz_of_Oz
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@Blacklodge, After the move up, I am expecting gold to retest the 1160 level again before a move higher. Its a turbulent and volatile world..:-)
Blacklodge
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@ktal, Possibly correct as short-term USD seems stronger than EURO, but for my sake I hope you're wrong. Hopefully rising bonds and a falling DOW will help give a floor to gold against any rise is USD. And then hopefully a crash in the DOW will see gold then reach new all time highs.
Wiz_of_Oz
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@Blacklodge, I hope for my sake, I am wrong too as I hold several gold miners.but no positions in gold :-) but I think some risk management is necessary and if there is a pullback, I will be going long.