LastBattle
Short

Is the STI (Singapore) close to a massive collapse?

AMEX:EWS   ISHARES MSCI SINGAPORE CAPPED ETF
As someone living in Singapore, I've stumbled across signals of perhaps a start of a larger implosion that's about to happen in the near future.

The ghost malls:
In recent years, there've been a dramatic increase in the number of vacancy in retail malls including those in the prime areas such as city area.
What's seen right now is even worst than 2007 prior to the collapse, it simply warns about bad times ahead.
The ever increasing high rentals have also played a part in this, with a retail store as small as 60 square             foot near train stations as high as $10,000 SGD per month.
https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1581671718752604&id=1438936173026160&pnref=story

Many international brands such as John Little, Marks & Spencer, Fancl , have also closed/consolidated most of their retail outlets in Singapore.
http://features.insing.com/feature/two-john-little-stores-to-close-in-singapore/id-06683101/
http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/money/story/japanese-skincare-brand-fancl-close-its-singapore-stores-20140203

Politics:
After the collapse of Lehman Brother in 2008, the Singapore economy experienced a relatively swift V-shape recovery partly due to the population policy that brought in millions of foreigners in a short period of time. With more population, it stimulate housing demand immediately and everything else in the economy. However at the same time also caused overcrowding, strain in the infrastructure, higher cost of living, inequality & etc.
In a desperate measure, the parliament passed a population white paper bill with little or no debate by the Member Parliament targeting 6.9 million population by the year 2020 from the current 5 million.
http://population.sg/whitepaper/#.VYDbJOREhBA

This is unlike the US that took nearly 5 years for S&P             to reach prior highs.

It have certainly met with setbacks as the ruling party, People Action Party lost the first Group Representation Constituency in its history despite gerrymandering. Including a record low amount of votes in history since 1950s, at 60% in 2012.
The rate of new citizens and permanent resident intake in Singapore have certainly slowed dramatically after the election. Can they still afford to continue accelerate the intake of foreigners if were to start crashing down here?

Number of new Singapore citizens and Singapore PR approvals down in 2011
  • 2001-2004: 35,250
  • 2005: 52,300
  • 2006: 57,300
  • 2007: 63,600
  • 2008: 79,200
  • 2009: 59,460
  • 2010: 29,265 - Massive collapse!
  • 2011: 27,735 - 2011 election time.

Massive housing debt-ridden economy & collapsing housing price
According to Singapore government data, the total net creditor country debt of Singapore currently stands at over S$389,187,022,165. With a population of 5,399,494 residents that'll be S$72,010 per person. (Not external debt, but domestic debt)
101.02% of the Gross Domestic Product.
http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/singapore

Most of the debt comes primarily from housing which have seen a stratospheric rise in price relative to the low and middle income earners which have not seen their wage growing since the early 2000s when accounting for inflation.
Housing price Index: 30 in 1986 -> 150 in 2012.

Change in household debt-to-income ratio(2007-2013):
http://yoursdp.org/Economy/debt.png
http://yoursdp.org/news/shocking_singapore_debt_statistic_in_new_report/2015-02-06-5950

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt
#13 after Ireland, Eritrea, Iceland. With the first few being Japan, Zimbabwe, & Greece.

http://www.todayonline.com/business/slump-sees-over-2000-property-agents-leave-major-firms

The top-buyer of property:
May this year, a penthouse at the Le Nouvel Ardmore was sold for record 51 million Singapore dollars by Mr Sun Tongyu, the co-founder of e-commerce giant Alibaba. In sprite of the falling property prices across the board in Singapore.

http://www.propertyguru
LastBattle
a year ago
-- Continue,

Reserves
It is not known how much reserves do the Singapore government have at the moment, it've been a well protected secret that only the president will have access to.

The first 'people's president Ong Teng Cheong back in 1970s asked about the reserves, it was said it would have taken 56-man years to know about how much reserves Singapore have.
http://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2014/02/ong-teng-cheong-i-had-a-job-to-do/
https://tnesingapore.wordpress.com/2015/06/16/tharman-concedes-after-failing-to-answer-question-on-reserves-transparency/

Have they been engaging in 'secret' QE programs are they really solvent? We'll never know.

--------------------------------------------------
iShares MSCI Singapore ETF: https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239678/ishares-msci-singapore-etf
Straits Times index: https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5ESTI
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Please do comment! I welcome the opinions of all...
Reply
LastBattle LastBattle
a year ago
** Reserves have also fallen by 34 billion recently to prop up Singapore Dollar, with the appreciation of USD.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/billions-reserves-being-used-prop-042600873.html
+1 Reply
jangseohee
a year ago
seems like you know more than i do though not living in Singapore?
breaking down the median line will be disastrous
snapshot
+1 Reply
ChartArt jangseohee
a year ago
wow, on the edge of a cliff there!
+2 Reply
jangseohee
a year ago
oh W clones
snapshot
+1 Reply
very interesting write up in your post, well done.
+1 Reply
LastBattle
a year ago
Singapore June Factory Output Falls 4.4% Y/y; Est. 0.4% Drop
Reply
jangseohee
a year ago
once the previous low is taken out, W is invalid
(excluding a false break)
snapshot
+2 Reply
LastBattle jangseohee
a year ago
yep! let's see what happens.
China had a massive dump today...
Reply
LastBattle
a year ago
snapshot


pretty close.
+1 Reply
LastBattle
a year ago
snapshot


8/9/2015
+2 Reply
LastBattle LastBattle
a year ago
http://statestimesreview.com/2015/08/09/dbs-singapores-latest-quarter-gdp-decline-5-hitting-6-year-low/

According to a news article by Singapore Business Review (SBR) quoting Singapore’s national bank DBS, the latest GDP figure will decline 5% quarter-to-quarter which is the worst ever since the financial crisis in 2009. Led by the poor economic performance of the manufacturing sector and especially the industrial production, Singapore is poised to face its first recession soon in July. The official GDP report from the Government will only be announced after the National Day on Tuesday (August 11).


The crash on commodity is getting more evident now, including the slowdown in China.
+1 Reply
LastBattle
a year ago
http://statestimesreview.com/2015/08/12/singapore-stock-market-crash-2-64-in-a-single-day/

STI crashes 2.64% today, with USDSGD exchange rate up over 3% to 1.411 from 1.38.

snapshot


snapshot
+1 Reply
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