!!!FIFA World Cup long-term play!!! (Maybe a bit early lol)
Price seems to have found support at the long-term monthly trendline for now.
Bullish Thesis:
Brazil is a resource and an emerging market play for my portfolio. Considering I missed the recent gains in commodity stocks (steel,coal), I believe long-term EWZ should rise too provided the overall trend in commodity stocks is confirmed bullish. Consolidation of the recent gains would be nice to see and would provide chance to add.
World Cup should provide the obvious benefits but I feel the market has't correctly priced in much premium for it yet.
EWZ is in a falling wedge pattern (mostly bullish) and there is Bullish Divergence in the Fisher transform. Out of the BRICS, Brazil isn't the strongest but has a good risk-reward to trade off. Indian Stocks are already at yearly highs so hard to initiate any kind of longs there now.
I have a Tier 1 size long position bought between $46-$47. I will add more size to this position if we get a deeper pullback or if there is a good pattern on the daily to trade off. Breakout from this wedge pattern + MA crossover confirmation would be very bullish from hereon.
I currently don't have a hard stop on this position as I am considering it as 12 month long-term play (Stop not based on specific price but on certain events)
!Events!- Brazilian Inflation rising; 1/2 size off if SPY loses and close below 50 day MA and 1/2 off it loses 100 day MA; Commodity Stocks start a bearish trend again.
Bullish Thesis:
Brazil is a resource and an emerging market play for my portfolio. Considering I missed the recent gains in commodity stocks (steel,coal), I believe long-term EWZ should rise too provided the overall trend in commodity stocks is confirmed bullish. Consolidation of the recent gains would be nice to see and would provide chance to add.
World Cup should provide the obvious benefits but I feel the market has't correctly priced in much premium for it yet.
EWZ is in a falling wedge pattern (mostly bullish) and there is Bullish Divergence in the Fisher transform. Out of the BRICS, Brazil isn't the strongest but has a good risk-reward to trade off. Indian Stocks are already at yearly highs so hard to initiate any kind of longs there now.
I have a Tier 1 size long position bought between $46-$47. I will add more size to this position if we get a deeper pullback or if there is a good pattern on the daily to trade off. Breakout from this wedge pattern + MA crossover confirmation would be very bullish from hereon.
I currently don't have a hard stop on this position as I am considering it as 12 month long-term play (Stop not based on specific price but on certain events)
!Events!- Brazilian Inflation rising; 1/2 size off if SPY loses and close below 50 day MA and 1/2 off it loses 100 day MA; Commodity Stocks start a bearish trend again.