Ensof0112
Long

!!!FIFA World Cup long-term play!!! (Maybe a bit early lol)

BATS:EWZ   ISHARES MSCI BRAZIL CAPPED ETF
123 2 4
Price seems to have found support at the long-term monthly trendline for now.

Bullish Thesis:
Brazil is a resource             and an emerging market play for my portfolio. Considering I missed the recent gains in commodity stocks (steel,coal), I believe long-term EWZ             should rise too provided the overall trend in commodity stocks is confirmed bullish . Consolidation of the recent gains would be nice to see and would provide chance to add.

World Cup should provide the obvious benefits but I feel the market has't correctly priced in much premium for it yet.
EWZ             is in a falling wedge pattern (mostly bullish ) and there is Bullish Divergence in the Fisher transform. Out of the BRICS, Brazil isn't the strongest but has a good risk-reward to trade off. Indian Stocks are already at yearly highs so hard to initiate any kind of longs there now.

I have a Tier 1 size long position bought between $46-$47. I will add more size to this position if we get a deeper pullback or if there is a good pattern on the daily to trade off. Breakout from this wedge pattern + MA crossover confirmation would be very bullish from hereon.
I currently don't have a hard stop on this position as I am considering it as 12 month long-term play (Stop not based on specific price but on certain events)

!Events!- Brazilian Inflation rising; 1/2 size off if SPY             loses and close below 50 day MA and 1/2 off it loses 100 day MA; Commodity Stocks start a bearish trend again.
otaviocarvalho
3 years ago
Similar thinking in $PBR, but I'm waiting a little bit more to position... Take a look at my chart later!
Nice triangle
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